Ex Post Facto Analysis : A Method of Evaluate the Accuracy of Population Projection Estimated in 1970 for the 1990 Spatial Population Distribution in the North Central Texas Region of the US

IR IR (HANDLE) Web Site

Bibliographic Information

Other Title
  • Ex Post Facto Analysis: A Method to Evaluate the Accuracy of Population Projection Estimated in 1970 for the 1990 Spatial Population Distribution in the North Central Texas Region of the US

Search this article

Description

In　1968，　the　Regional　Science　Research　lnstitute（RSAI）in　Philadelphia　was　asked　by　the　North　Central Texas　Council　of　Govemments（NCTCOG）to　esti皿ate　the　impact　of　the　proposed　construction　of　the Dallas！Fort　Worth　lnternatiop．　al　Airport　on　the　socio－economic　variables　in　the　lO－county　NCTCOG region，　in　order　to　provide　local　governments　with　information　needed　to　form　their　basic　policies．　In 1970，the　RSRI　published　its　estimates　of　population　in　both　1975　and　1990　fbr　the　80　subareas　of　the NCTCOG　region．　This　paper　conducts　an　ex　post　facto　analysis　to　evaluate　the　accuracy　of　the　l990 population　projection　estimated　by　the　RSRI．　For　this　purpose，　an　index　of　judgment　J2　is　proposed　as　a measure　to　indicate　the　degree　of　fitness　of　the　pr（）j　ec　ted　values　to　the　actual　values．　This　index　is　a conceptual　outgrowth　of　the　coefficient　of　detemlination　R　2，　but　can　be　apPlied　to　different　situations which　the　traditional　R　2　can　not．

Journal

Keywords

Details 詳細情報について

Report a problem

Back to top