{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360011142932319360.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.1175/jcli-d-13-00678.1"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"http://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article-pdf/27/20/7622/3961136/jcli-d-13-00678_1.pdf"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"Future Changes in the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity Projected by a Multidecadal Simulation with a 16-km Global Atmospheric GCM"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title>\n               <jats:p>How tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the northwestern Pacific might change in a future climate is assessed using multidecadal Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style and time-slice simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) at 16-km and 125-km global resolution. Both models reproduce many aspects of the present-day TC climatology and variability well, although the 16-km IFS is far more skillful in simulating the full intensity distribution and genesis locations, including their changes in response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Both IFS models project a small change in TC frequency at the end of the twenty-first century related to distinct shifts in genesis locations. In the 16-km IFS, this shift is southward and is likely driven by the southeastward penetration of the monsoon trough/subtropical high circulation system and the southward shift in activity of the synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in response to the strengthening of deep convective activity over the central equatorial Pacific in a future climate. The 16-km IFS also projects about a 50% increase in the power dissipation index, mainly due to significant increases in the frequency of the more intense storms, which is comparable to the natural variability in the model. Based on composite analysis of large samples of supertyphoons, both the development rate and the peak intensities of these storms increase in a future climate, which is consistent with their tendency to develop more to the south, within an environment that is thermodynamically more favorable for faster development and higher intensities. Coherent changes in the vertical structure of supertyphoon composites show system-scale amplification of the primary and secondary circulations with signs of contraction, a deeper warm core, and an upward shift in the outflow layer and the frequency of the most intense updrafts. Considering the large differences in the projections of TC intensity change between the 16-km and 125-km IFS, this study further emphasizes the need for high-resolution modeling in assessing potential changes in TC activity.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380011142932319361","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Julia V. Manganello"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, Virginia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380011142932319360","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Kevin I. Hodges"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"NERC Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380011142932319363","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Brandt Dirmeyer"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, Virginia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380011142932319365","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"James L. Kinter"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, and George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380011142932319371","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Benjamin A. Cash"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, Virginia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380011142932319370","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Lawrence Marx"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, Virginia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380011142932319366","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Thomas Jung"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380011142932319372","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Deepthi Achuthavarier"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, Virginia, and Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, Maryland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380011142932319362","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Jennifer M. Adams"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, Virginia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380011142932319369","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Eric L. Altshuler"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, Virginia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380011142932319364","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Bohua Huang"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, and George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380011142932319367","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Emilia K. Jin"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, South Korea"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380011142932319373","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Peter Towers"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380011142932319368","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Nils Wedi"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"08948755"},{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"15200442"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"Journal of Climate"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"American Meteorological Society"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2014-10-07","prism:volume":"27","prism:number":"20","prism:startingPage":"7622","prism:endingPage":"7646"},"reviewed":"false","url":[{"@id":"http://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article-pdf/27/20/7622/3961136/jcli-d-13-00678_1.pdf"}],"createdAt":"2014-09-05","modifiedAt":"2020-12-07","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050012570393522816","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Outcomes and challenges of global high-resolution non-hydrostatic atmospheric simulations using the K computer"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360009142903151104","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360565168765677568","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Response of Tropical Cyclone Activity and Structure to Global Warming in a High-Resolution Global Nonhydrostatic Model"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360846639281473408","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in High‐Resolution Large‐Ensemble Simulations"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360853567779080064","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361694594147643648","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Evaluation for Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Induced Heavy Rainfall over the Sub-basins in The Central Hokkaido, Northern Japan by 5-km Large Ensemble Experiments"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390282681481473792","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"A 20-Year Climatology of a NICAM AMIP-Type Simulation"}]}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1175/jcli-d-13-00678.1"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1175/jcli-d-17-0068.1_references_DOI_VO3ps4PaP47xwCLVElHm1xZOYYD"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1007/s10584-020-02782-7_references_DOI_VO3ps4PaP47xwCLVElHm1xZOYYD"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1186/s40645-017-0127-8_references_DOI_VO3ps4PaP47xwCLVElHm1xZOYYD"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.2151/jmsj.2015-024_references_DOI_VO3ps4PaP47xwCLVElHm1xZOYYD"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1002/2017gl075058_references_DOI_VO3ps4PaP47xwCLVElHm1xZOYYD"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1029/2020gl088662_references_DOI_VO3ps4PaP47xwCLVElHm1xZOYYD"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.3390/atmos11050435_references_DOI_VO3ps4PaP47xwCLVElHm1xZOYYD"}]}