{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360021394470028672.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.1186/s13362-020-00091-3"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13362-020-00091-3.pdf"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13362-020-00091-3/fulltext.html"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"Beyond just “flattening the curve”: Optimal control of epidemics with purely non-pharmaceutical interventions"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>When effective medical treatment and vaccination are not available, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, home quarantine and far-reaching shutdown of public life are the only available strategies to prevent the spread of epidemics. Based on an extended SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and continuous-time optimal control theory, we compute the optimal non-pharmaceutical intervention strategy for the case that a vaccine is never found and complete containment (eradication of the epidemic) is impossible. In this case, the optimal control must meet competing requirements: First, the minimization of disease-related deaths, and, second, the establishment of a sufficient degree of natural immunity at the end of the measures, in order to exclude a second wave. Moreover, the socio-economic costs of the intervention shall be kept at a minimum. The numerically computed optimal control strategy is a single-intervention scenario that goes beyond heuristically motivated interventions and simple “flattening of the curve”. Careful analysis of the computed control strategy reveals, however, that the obtained solution is in fact a tightrope walk close to the stability boundary of the system, where socio-economic costs and the risk of a new outbreak must be constantly balanced against one another. The model system is calibrated to reproduce the initial exponential growth phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380021394470028672","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Markus Kantner"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380021394470028673","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Thomas Koprucki"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"21905983"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"Journal of Mathematics in Industry"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2020-08-18","prism:volume":"10","prism:number":"1"},"reviewed":"false","dc:rights":["https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0","https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0"],"url":[{"@id":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13362-020-00091-3.pdf"},{"@id":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13362-020-00091-3/fulltext.html"}],"createdAt":"2020-08-18","modifiedAt":"2022-11-07","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360021390563288192","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Rational social distancing policy during epidemics with limited healthcare capacity"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360025430191383680","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Understanding Nash epidemics"}]}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1186/s13362-020-00091-3"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011533_references_DOI_7wH1oZoRlPzfxCmiyOHKCh0aJsQ"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1073/pnas.2409362122_references_DOI_7wH1oZoRlPzfxCmiyOHKCh0aJsQ"}]}