Ensemble numerical forecasts of the sporadic Kuroshio water intrusion (kyucho) into shelf and coastal waters

DOI Web Site 研究データあり 被引用文献3件 参考文献21件 オープンアクセス

この論文をさがす

説明

The finite volume coastal ocean model downscaling ocean reanalysis and forecast data provided by the Japan Coastal Ocean Predictability Experiment (JCOPE2) are used to forecast sudden Kuroshio water intrusion events (kyucho) induced by frontal waves amplified south of the Bungo Channel in 2010. Two-month hindcast computations give initial conditions of the following 3-month forecasts computations which consist of ten ensemble members. The temperature time series computed by these ten members are averaged to compare with that actually observed in the Bungo Channel, where sudden temperature rises related to kyucho events are remarkable in February, August, and September. Overall, the intense kyucho events actually observed in these months are predicted successfully. However, intense kyucho events are forecasted frequently during the period of May through June even though intense kyucho events are absent during this period in the actual ocean. It is suggested that the present downscaling forecast model requires reliable lateral boundary conditions provided by JCOPE2 data to which numerous Argo data are assimilated to enhance the accuracy. In addition, it seems likely that the model accuracy is reduced by small eddies moving along the shelf break.

収録刊行物

  • Ocean Dynamics

    Ocean Dynamics 62 (4), 633-644, 2012-01-17

    Springer Science and Business Media LLC

被引用文献 (3)*注記

もっと見る

参考文献 (21)*注記

もっと見る

関連プロジェクト

もっと見る

キーワード

詳細情報 詳細情報について

問題の指摘

ページトップへ