{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361137043789446272.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.1002/2015gl064842"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2F2015GL064842"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2015GL064842"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/2015GL064842"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2015GL064842"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"On the lognormality of historical magnetic storm intensity statistics: Implications for extreme‐event probabilities"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic storm maximum intensities are the realization of a lognormal stochastic process. Weighted least squares and maximum likelihood methods are used to fit lognormal functions to −<jats:italic>D</jats:italic><jats:italic>s</jats:italic><jats:italic>t</jats:italic> storm time maxima for years 1957–2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power‐law function. In general, the maximum likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least squares. From extrapolation of maximum likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, −<jats:italic>D</jats:italic><jats:italic>s</jats:italic><jats:italic>t</jats:italic> ≥ 850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42, 2.41] times per century; a 100 year magnetic storm is identified as having a −<jats:italic>D</jats:italic><jats:italic>s</jats:italic><jats:italic>t</jats:italic> ≥ 880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490, 1187] nT.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137043789446272","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Jeffrey J. Love"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"U.S. Geological Survey, Geomagnetism Program  Denver Colorado USA"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137043789446273","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"E. Joshua Rigler"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"U.S. Geological Survey, Geomagnetism Program  Denver Colorado USA"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137043789446400","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Antti Pulkkinen"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"NASA Goddard Space Flight Center  Greenbelt Maryland USA"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137043789446274","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Pete Riley"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Predictive Science Inc.  San Diego California USA"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"00948276"},{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"19448007"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"Geophysical Research Letters"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2015-08-19","prism:volume":"42","prism:number":"16","prism:startingPage":"6544","prism:endingPage":"6553"},"reviewed":"false","dc:rights":["http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor"],"url":[{"@id":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2F2015GL064842"},{"@id":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2015GL064842"},{"@id":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/2015GL064842"},{"@id":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2015GL064842"}],"createdAt":"2015-07-22","modifiedAt":"2023-09-02","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050303620067269760","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Extreme geomagnetic activities: a statistical study"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360005518173924992","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Intensity and Impact of the New York Railroad Superstorm of May 1921"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360021389805411072","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Statistical Analysis of Global and Regional Ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) Using Extreme Value Distributions"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360285708269601920","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"On the Intensity of the Magnetic Superstorm of September 1909"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360298345008304256","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Extreme solar events"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360849943103404544","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"IpsDst of Dst Storms Applied to Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Storms and Low‐Latitude Aurora"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1362820494264381440","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Capability of Geomagnetic Storm Parameters to Identify Severe Space Weather"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/2050870366939654528","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Automatic selection of Dst storms and their seasonal variations in two versions of Dst in 50 years"}]}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1002/2015gl064842"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1029/2019sw002250_references_DOI_UsHTCN5UmFX09p6StcXwMH9OjhS"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1186/s40623-020-01261-8_references_DOI_UsHTCN5UmFX09p6StcXwMH9OjhS"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1109/tgrs.2023.3338513_references_DOI_UsHTCN5UmFX09p6StcXwMH9OjhS"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1109/tgrs.2023.3338513_references_DOI_KOsF74htLTmjJhq877vC9VPdsyP"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1029/2018sw002079_references_DOI_UsHTCN5UmFX09p6StcXwMH9OjhS"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1007/s41116-022-00033-8_references_DOI_UsHTCN5UmFX09p6StcXwMH9OjhS"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1186/s40623-017-0642-2_references_DOI_UsHTCN5UmFX09p6StcXwMH9OjhS"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1029/2019ja027080_references_DOI_UsHTCN5UmFX09p6StcXwMH9OjhS"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.3847/1538-4357/ab5113_references_DOI_UsHTCN5UmFX09p6StcXwMH9OjhS"}]}