{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361137043851293824.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/10/6225/2013/bg-10-6225-2013.pdf"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections  with CMIP5 models"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:p>Abstract. Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming, acidification, deoxygenation and changes in primary productivity by marine phytoplankton can be considered as four of the major stressors of open ocean ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO2 in the coming decades, these changes will be amplified. Here, we use the most recent simulations performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century. The 10 Earth system models used here project similar trends in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced primary productivity for each of the IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCPs) over the 21st century. For the \"business-as-usual\" scenario RCP8.5, the model-mean changes in the 2090s (compared to the 1990s) for sea surface temperature, sea surface pH, global O2 content and integrated primary productivity amount to &amp;plus;2.73 (±0.72) °C, −0.33 (±0.003) pH unit, −3.45 (±0.44)% and −8.6 (±7.9)%, respectively. For the high mitigation scenario RCP2.6, corresponding changes are +0.71 (±0.45) °C, −0.07 (±0.001) pH unit, −1.81 (±0.31)% and −2.0 (±4.1)%, respectively, illustrating the effectiveness of extreme mitigation strategies. Although these stressors operate globally, they display distinct regional patterns and thus do not change coincidentally. Large decreases in O2 and in pH are simulated in global ocean intermediate and mode waters, whereas large reductions in primary production are simulated in the tropics and in the North Atlantic. Although temperature and pH projections are robust across models, the same does not hold for projections of subsurface O2 concentrations in the tropics and global and regional changes in net primary productivity. These high uncertainties in projections of primary productivity and subsurface oxygen prompt us to continue inter-model comparisons to understand these model differences, while calling for caution when using the CMIP5 models to force regional impact models.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380021390744465311","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"L. Bopp"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137043851293834","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"L. Resplandy"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137043851293826","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"J. C. Orr"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137043851293827","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"S. C. Doney"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137043851293825","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"J. P. Dunne"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137043851293829","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"M. Gehlen"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137043851293835","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"P. Halloran"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137043851293831","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"C. Heinze"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137043851293833","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"T. Ilyina"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137043851293824","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"R. Séférian"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137043851293830","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"J. Tjiputra"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137043851293832","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"M. Vichi"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"17264189"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"Biogeosciences"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"Copernicus GmbH"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2013-10-02","prism:volume":"10","prism:number":"10","prism:startingPage":"6225","prism:endingPage":"6245"},"reviewed":"false","dc:rights":["https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/"],"url":[{"@id":"https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/10/6225/2013/bg-10-6225-2013.pdf"}],"createdAt":"2013-10-02","modifiedAt":"2025-02-15","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050001338209104384","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Impact of cyclonic eddies and typhoons on biogeochemistry in the oligotrophic ocean based on biogeochemical/physical/meteorological time-series at station KEO"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050022853110824704","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Development of the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model and the evaluation of biogeochemical processes and feedbacks"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050022919157071616","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Glacial CO2 decrease and deep-water deoxygenation by iron fertilization from glaciogenic dust"},{"@value":"Glacial CO\n                  <sub>2</sub>\n                  decrease and deep-water deoxygenation by iron fertilization from glaciogenic dust"},{"@value":"Glacial CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; decrease and deep-water deoxygenation by iron fertilization from glaciogenic dust"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050025031476583168","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Long-term response of oceanic carbon uptake to global warming via physical and biological pumps"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050574201770984832","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Shift of symbiont communities in Acropora tenuis juveniles under heat stress"},{"@value":"Shift of symbiont communities in\n                    <i>Acropora tenuis</i>\n                    juveniles under heat stress"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050585803064813824","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Competing and accelerating effects of anthropogenic nutrient inputs on climate-driven changes in ocean carbon and oxygen cycles"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360002220651004288","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Obtaining Phytoplankton Diversity from Ocean Color: A Scientific Roadmap for Future Development"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360002221118713216","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"A new global interior ocean mapped climatology: the 1° ×  1° GLODAP version 2"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360004229803475456","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"On the Southern Ocean CO<sub>2</sub> uptake and the role of the biological carbon pump in the 21st century"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360004235517534464","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Experimental strategies to assess the biological ramifications of multiple drivers of global ocean change—A review"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360004240191795840","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360021390744465152","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Irreversible loss in marine ecosystem habitability after a temperature overshoot"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360283689326283264","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal 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Series (SPOTS) – a ship-based biogeochemical pilot"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360565164302986368","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Global deep ocean oxygenation by enhanced ventilation in the Southern Ocean under long‐term global warming"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360565171072134528","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"The Global Ocean Data Analysis Project version 2 (GLODAPv2) – an internally\nconsistent data product for the world ocean"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360567181335533568","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Comparison of carbon cycle between the western Pacific subarctic and subtropical time-series stations: highlights of the K2S1 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シンソウ"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390282679461539200","@type":"Article","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"世界と日本におけるサンゴ礁の状況，今後の予測，そして保全に向けた取組"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Status of coral reefs of the world and Japan, future projections, and conservation measures"},{"@language":"ja-Kana","@value":"セカイ ト ニホン ニ オケル サンゴショウ ノ ジョウキョウ,コンゴ ノ ヨソク,ソシテ ホゼン ニ ムケタ トリクミ"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1523669554726858880","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"CMIP5 model analysis of future changes in ocean net primary production focusing on differences among individual oceans and models"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/2050307417119877760","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Ocean carbon pump decomposition and its application to CMIP5 earth system 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