{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361137045492828160.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.1175/2007mwr2032.1"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"http://journals.ametsoc.org/mwr/article-pdf/135/12/3965/4228112/2007mwr2032_1.pdf"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"The Operational GFDL Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Prediction System and a Summary of Its Performance"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title>\n               <jats:p>The past decade has been marked by significant advancements in numerical weather prediction of hurricanes, which have greatly contributed to the steady decline in forecast track error. Since its operational implementation by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) in 1995, the best-track model performer has been NOAA’s regional hurricane model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The purpose of this paper is to summarize the major upgrades to the GFDL hurricane forecast system since 1998. These include coupling the atmospheric component with the Princeton Ocean Model, which became operational in 2001, major physics upgrades implemented in 2003 and 2006, and increases in both the vertical resolution in 2003 and the horizontal resolution in 2002 and 2005. The paper will also report on the GFDL model performance for both track and intensity, focusing particularly on the 2003 through 2006 hurricane seasons. During this period, the GFDL track errors were the lowest of all the dynamical model guidance available to the NWS Tropical Prediction Center in both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins. It will also be shown that the GFDL model has exhibited a steady reduction in its intensity errors during the past 5 yr, and can now provide skillful intensity forecasts. Tests of 153 forecasts from the 2004 and 2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons and 75 forecasts from the 2005 eastern Pacific season have demonstrated a positive impact on both track and intensity prediction in the 2006 GFDL model upgrade, through introduction of a cloud microphysics package and an improved air–sea momentum flux parameterization. In addition, the large positive intensity bias in sheared environments observed in previous versions of the model is significantly reduced. This led to the significant improvement in the model’s reliability and skill for forecasting intensity that occurred in 2006.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137045492828162","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Morris A. Bender"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, New Jersey"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137045492828160","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Isaac Ginis"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, Rhode Island"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137045492828033","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Robert Tuleya"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"SAIC at NOAA/NWS/Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, Maryland, and CCPO, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137045492828161","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Biju Thomas"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, Rhode Island"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381137045492828032","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Timothy Marchok"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, New Jersey"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"15200493"},{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"00270644"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"Monthly Weather Review"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"American Meteorological Society"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2007-12-01","prism:volume":"135","prism:number":"12","prism:startingPage":"3965","prism:endingPage":"3989"},"reviewed":"false","url":[{"@id":"http://journals.ametsoc.org/mwr/article-pdf/135/12/3965/4228112/2007mwr2032_1.pdf"}],"createdAt":"2007-12-28","modifiedAt":"2020-12-07","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360848656345049344","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Field observation and numerical simulation of past and future storm surges in the Bay of Bengal: case study of cyclone Nargis"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390001206503584128","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Simultaneous Optimization of Air-Sea Exchange Coefficients and Initial Conditions near a Tropical Cyclone Using JNoVA"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"Simultaneous Optimization of Air-Sea Exchange Coefficients and Initial Conditions near a Tropical Cyclone Using JNoVA"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390282681480029696","@type":"Article","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Advances in Convection-Permitting Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Prediction through EnKF Assimilation of Reconnaissance Aircraft Observations"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390564238098706560","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Air-Sea Coupled Data Assimilation Experiment for Typhoons Kilo, Etau and the September 2015 Kanto-Tohoku Heavy Rainfall with the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 Sea Surface Temperature"},{"@value":"Special Edition on Tropical Cyclones in 2015-2016 : Air-Sea Coupled Data Assimilation Experiment for Typhoons Kilo, Etau and the September 2015 Kanto-Tohoku Heavy Rainfall with the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 Sea Surface Temperature"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/2050588892134483200","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Typhoon-induced sea surface cooling during the 2011 and 2012 typhoon seasons : observational evidence and numerical investigations of the sea surface cooling effect using typhoon simulations"}]}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1175/2007mwr2032.1"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.2151/jmsj.2019-029_references_DOI_SDOue7pJnQwb0JmQSnK8D66jUQt"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1007/s11069-014-1387-x_references_DOI_SDOue7pJnQwb0JmQSnK8D66jUQt"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.2151/jmsj.2013-307_references_DOI_SDOue7pJnQwb0JmQSnK8D66jUQt"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.2151/jmsj.2016-018_references_DOI_SDOue7pJnQwb0JmQSnK8D66jUQt"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1186/2197-4284-1-11_references_DOI_SDOue7pJnQwb0JmQSnK8D66jUQt"}]}