{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361418521311064064.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.1029/jb086ib04p02853"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"http://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1029%2FJB086iB04p02853"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1029%2FJB086iB04p02853"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/JB086iB04p02853"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"Stochastic synthesis of earthquake catalogs"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:p>A model of earthquake occurrence is proposed that is based on results of statistical studies of earthquake catalogs. We assume that each earthquake generates additional a probability that depends on time as t<jats:sup>−(1+θ)</jats:sup>. This assumption together with one regarding the independence of branching events on adjacent branches of the event ‘tree,’ is sufficient to permit the generation of complete catalogs of earthquakes that have the same time‐magnitude statistical properties as real earthquake catalogs. If θ is about 0.5, the process generates sequences that have statistical properties similar to those for shallow earthquakes: many well‐known relations are reproduced including the magnitude‐frequency law, Omori's law of the rate of aftershock and foreshock occurrence, the duration of a recorded seismic event versus its magnitude, the self‐similarity or lack of scale of rate of earthquake occurrence in different magnitude ranges, etc. A value of θ closer to 0.8 or 0.9 seems to simulate the statistical properties of intermediate and deep shocks. A formula for seismic risk prediction is proposed,and the implications of the model for risk evaluation are outlined. The possibilities of the determination of long‐term risk from real or synthetic catalogs that have the property of self‐similarity are dim.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380004057871586565","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Y. Y. Kagan"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381418521311064065","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"L. Knopoff"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"01480227"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)"}],"prism:publicationDate":"1981-04-10","prism:volume":"86","prism:number":"B4","prism:startingPage":"2853","prism:endingPage":"2862"},"reviewed":"false","dc:rights":["http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor"],"url":[{"@id":"http://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1029%2FJB086iB04p02853"},{"@id":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1029%2FJB086iB04p02853"},{"@id":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/JB086iB04p02853"}],"createdAt":"2008-02-06","modifiedAt":"2023-09-22","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050002213399399424","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Omori-like slow decay (p < 1) of postseismic displacement rates following the 2011 Tohoku megathrust earthquake"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050856461675252736","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Field master equation theory of the self-excited Hawkes process"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360846642763652608","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Stability of earthquake clustering models: Criticality and branching ratios"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390001206511716480","@type":"Article","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Spatial and temporal variations of the aftershock sequences of the 1999"},{"@value":"Spatial and temporal variations of the aftershock sequences of the 1999 İzmit and Düzce earthquakes"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390282681488921216","@type":"Article","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Spatial analysis of the frequency-magnitude distribution and decay rate of aftershock activity of the 2000 Western Tottori earthquake"}]}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1029/jb086ib04p02853"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1186/bf03351791_references_DOI_ZsUSJpiN2WH833bRNlR8p0ct8zJ"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1186/bf03352077_references_DOI_ZsUSJpiN2WH833bRNlR8p0ct8zJ"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1103/physrevresearch.2.033442_references_DOI_ZsUSJpiN2WH833bRNlR8p0ct8zJ"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1103/physreve.88.062109_references_DOI_ZsUSJpiN2WH833bRNlR8p0ct8zJ"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1186/s40623-020-01162-w_references_DOI_ZsUSJpiN2WH833bRNlR8p0ct8zJ"}]}