{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361699993772911360.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.5194/bg-15-5315-2018"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/15/5315/2018/bg-15-5315-2018.pdf"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"Drivers of future seasonal cycle changes in oceanic\n                    <i>p</i>\n                    CO\n                    <sub>2</sub>"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:p>Abstract. Recent\nobservation-based results show that the seasonal amplitude of surface ocean\npartial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) has been increasing\non average at a rate of 2–3 µatm per decade\n(Landschützer et al., 2018). Future increases in pCO2 seasonality\nare expected, as marine CO2 concentration ([CO2])\nwill increase in response to increasing anthropogenic carbon emissions\n(McNeil and Sasse, 2016). Here we use seven different global coupled\natmosphere–ocean–carbon cycle–ecosystem model simulations conducted as\npart of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to study\nfuture projections of the pCO2 annual cycle amplitude and to\nelucidate the causes of its amplification. We find that for the RCP8.5\nemission scenario the seasonal amplitude (climatological maximum minus\nminimum) of upper ocean pCO2 will increase by a factor of\n1.5 to 3 over the next 60–80 years. To understand the drivers and mechanisms\nthat control the pCO2 seasonal amplification we develop a\ncomplete analytical Taylor expansion of pCO2 seasonality in\nterms of its four drivers: dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total\nalkalinity (TA), temperature (T), and salinity (S). Using this linear\napproximation we show that the DIC and T terms are the dominant\ncontributors to the total change in pCO2 seasonality. To\nfirst order, their future intensification can be traced back to a doubling of\nthe annual mean pCO2, which enhances DIC and alters the\nocean carbonate chemistry. Regional differences in the projected seasonal\ncycle amplitude are generated by spatially varying sensitivity terms. The\nsubtropical and equatorial regions (40∘ S–40∘ N) will\nexperience a ≈30–80 µatm increase in seasonal cycle\namplitude almost exclusively due to a larger background CO2\nconcentration that amplifies the T seasonal effect on solubility. This\nmechanism is further reinforced by an overall increase in the seasonal cycle\nof T as a result of stronger ocean stratification and a projected shoaling\nof mean mixed layer depths. The Southern Ocean will experience a seasonal\ncycle amplification of ≈90–120 µatm in response to the\nmean pCO2-driven change in the mean DIC contribution and to\na lesser extent to the T contribution. However, a decrease in the DIC\nseasonal cycle amplitude somewhat counteracts this regional amplification\nmechanism.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699993772911363","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"M. Angeles Gallego"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699993772911361","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Axel Timmermann"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699993772911362","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Tobias Friedrich"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699993772911360","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Richard E. Zeebe"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"17264189"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"Biogeosciences"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"Copernicus GmbH"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2018-09-03","prism:volume":"15","prism:number":"17","prism:startingPage":"5315","prism:endingPage":"5327"},"reviewed":"false","dc:rights":["https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"],"url":[{"@id":"https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/15/5315/2018/bg-15-5315-2018.pdf"}],"createdAt":"2018-09-03","modifiedAt":"2025-02-01","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1363388843780691584","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/2050307417119877760","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Ocean carbon pump decomposition and its application to CMIP5 earth system model simulations"}]}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.5194/bg-15-5315-2018"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1186/s40645-020-00338-y_references_DOI_DdEHW9CRXvyxQN3bg2YMrMWXWrk"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020_references_DOI_DdEHW9CRXvyxQN3bg2YMrMWXWrk"}]}