{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361699994986547200.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.1002/wat2.1137"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fwat2.1137"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wat2.1137"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/wat2.1137"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wat2.1137"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:p>Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist. As numerical weather prediction models continue to improve, operational centers are increasingly using their meteorological output to drive hydrological models, creating hydrometeorological systems capable of forecasting river flow and flood events at much longer lead times than has previously been possible. Furthermore, developments in, for example, modelling capabilities, data, and resources in recent years have made it possible to produce global scale flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the current state of operational large‐scale flood forecasting is discussed, including probabilistic forecasting of floods using ensemble prediction systems. Six state‐of‐the‐art operational large‐scale flood forecasting systems are reviewed, describing similarities and differences in their approaches to forecasting floods at the global and continental scale. Operational systems currently have the capability to produce coarse‐scale discharge forecasts in the medium‐range and disseminate forecasts and, in some cases, early warning products in real time across the globe, in support of national forecasting capabilities. With improvements in seasonal weather forecasting, future advances may include more seamless hydrological forecasting at the global scale alongside a move towards multi‐model forecasts and grand ensemble techniques, responding to the requirement of developing multi‐hazard early warning systems for disaster risk reduction. <jats:italic>WIREs Water</jats:italic> 2016, 3:391–418. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1137</jats:p><jats:p>This article is categorized under:\n<jats:list list-type=\"explicit-label\">\n<jats:list-item><jats:p>Science of Water > Water Extremes</jats:p></jats:list-item>\n</jats:list></jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699994986547208","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Rebecca E. Emerton"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Geography and Environmental Science University of Reading Reading UK"},{"@value":"Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK"},{"@value":"European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reading UK"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699994986547329","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Elisabeth M. Stephens"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Geography and Environmental Science University of Reading Reading UK"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699994986547200","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Florian Pappenberger"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reading UK"},{"@value":"School of Geographical Sciences University of Bristol Bristol UK"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699994986547207","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Thomas C. Pagano"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Bureau of Meteorology Perth Australia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699994986547205","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Albrecht H. Weerts"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Deltares Delft The Netherlands"},{"@value":"Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Department of Environmental Sciences Wageningen University Wageningen The Netherlands"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699994986547203","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Andy W. Wood"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699994986547202","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Peter Salamon"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Joint Research Centre Ispra Italy"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699994986547209","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"James D. Brown"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Hydrologic Solutions Ltd. Southampton UK"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699994986547206","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Niclas Hjerdt"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping Sweden"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699994986547201","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Chantal Donnelly"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping Sweden"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699994986547328","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Calum A. Baugh"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reading UK"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699994986547204","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Hannah L. Cloke"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Geography and Environmental Science University of Reading Reading UK"},{"@value":"Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"20491948"},{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"20491948"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"WIREs Water"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"Wiley"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2016-02-27","prism:volume":"3","prism:number":"3","prism:startingPage":"391","prism:endingPage":"418"},"reviewed":"false","dc:rights":["http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"],"url":[{"@id":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fwat2.1137"},{"@id":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wat2.1137"},{"@id":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/wat2.1137"},{"@id":"https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wat2.1137"}],"createdAt":"2016-02-27","modifiedAt":"2023-09-01","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050025485814195584","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"A New Generation of Hydrological Condition Simulator Employing Physical Models and Satellite-Based Meteorological Data"},{"@value":"A New Generation of Hydrological Condition Simulator Employing Physical Models and Satellite‐Based Meteorological Data"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360016870544545152","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Development of a Reservoir Flood Control Scheme for Global Flood Models"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360584339761668352","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Multi-model evaluation of catchment- and global-scale hydrological model simulations of drought characteristics across eight large river catchments"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360848659382721024","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Worldwide evaluation of mean and extreme runoff from six global-scale hydrological models that account for human impacts"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361981468853606656","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Applicability of a nationwide flood forecasting system for Typhoon Hagibis 2019"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390004951541558016","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"IMPLEMENTING RESERVOIR OPERATION IN A PROBABILISTIC FLOOD FORECAST SYSTEM AND ITS APPLICATION TO 2015 KINU RIVER FLOOD"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"洪水調節を組み込んだ確率洪水予報システムの構築及び2015年鬼怒川洪水への適用"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390291767694781184","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"DEVELOPMENT OF METHODOLOGY FOR INTRODUCING SURVEYED RIVER CROSS-SECTIONS INTO NATIONWIDE DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGICAL MODEL THROUGHOUT JAPAN, AND ITS EFFECT ON WATER LEVEL PREDICTION ACCURACY"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"日本全域分布型水文モデルへの河道測量横断面反映手法の開発と水位再現性の検証"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/2050870367075064960","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Ensemble flash flood predictions using a high-resolution nationwide distributed rainfall-runoff model : case study of the heavy rain event of July 2018 and Typhoon Hagibis in 2019"}]}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1002/wat2.1137"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.2208/jscejhe.75.2_i_151_references_DOI_aOJZuoOerox3XzU73ZdvgpAVpw6"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1029/2021ms002944_references_DOI_aOJZuoOerox3XzU73ZdvgpAVpw6"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.2208/jscejhe.78.1_7_references_DOI_aOJZuoOerox3XzU73ZdvgpAVpw6"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1038/s41598-021-89522-8_references_DOI_aOJZuoOerox3XzU73ZdvgpAVpw6"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2022.104212_references_DOI_aOJZuoOerox3XzU73ZdvgpAVpw6"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1088/1748-9326/aac547_references_DOI_aOJZuoOerox3XzU73ZdvgpAVpw6"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1186/s40645-020-00391-7_references_DOI_aOJZuoOerox3XzU73ZdvgpAVpw6"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1029/2023ea003228_references_DOI_aOJZuoOerox3XzU73ZdvgpAVpw6"}]}