{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361699996491927424.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.1029/2003gl018141"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1029%2F2003GL018141"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2003GL018141"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1029/2003GL018141"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2003GL018141"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"An alternative to radiative forcing for estimating the relative importance of climate change mechanisms"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:p>Radiative forcing is widely used to measure the relative efficacy of climate change mechanisms. Earlier general circulation model (GCM) experiments showed that the global‐mean radiative forcing could be used to predict, with useful accuracy, the consequent global‐mean surface temperature change regardless of whether the forcing was due to, for example, changes in greenhouse gases or solar output. More recent experiments indicate that for changes in absorbing aerosols and ozone, the predictive ability of radiative forcing is much worse. Building on a suggestion from Hansen and co‐workers, we propose an alternative, the “adjusted troposphere and stratosphere forcing”. We present GCM calculations showing that it is a significantly more reliable predictor of this GCM's surface temperature change than radiative forcing. It is a candidate to supplement radiative forcing as a metric for comparing different mechanisms and provides a framework for understanding the circumstances in which radiative forcing is less reliable.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699996491927426","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Keith P. Shine"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Meteorology The University of Reading  Reading UK"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699996491927424","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Jolene Cook"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Meteorology The University of Reading  Reading UK"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699996491927427","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Eleanor J. Highwood"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Meteorology The University of Reading  Reading UK"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381699996491927425","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Manoj M. Joshi"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Meteorology The University of Reading  Reading UK"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"00948276"},{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"19448007"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"Geophysical Research Letters"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2003-10","prism:volume":"30","prism:number":"20","prism:startingPage":"2047"},"reviewed":"false","dc:rights":["http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor"],"url":[{"@id":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1029%2F2003GL018141"},{"@id":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2003GL018141"},{"@id":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1029/2003GL018141"},{"@id":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2003GL018141"}],"createdAt":"2003-10-22","modifiedAt":"2023-09-06","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050282814174709632","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Seasonally variant low cloud adjustment over cool oceans"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360002214585815936","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360002215531764608","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Rapid Adjustments of Cloud and Hydrological Cycle to Increasing CO2: a Review"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360572092555041664","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Effective radiative forcing from emissions of reactive gases and aerosols – a multi-model comparison"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360848658221860864","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Understanding Rapid Adjustments to Diverse Forcing Agents"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360865815493455104","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change – progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390282681472609920","@type":"Article","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"The role and potential of Quaternary research in constraining future climate sensitivity"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"気候感度の制約において第四紀研究の果たす役割と可能性について"},{"@language":"ja-Kana","@value":"キコウ カンド ノ セイヤク ニ オイテ ダイ4キ ケンキュウ ノ ハタス ヤクワリ ト カノウセイ ニ ツイテ"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/2051996266842852864","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"A review of progress towards understanding the transient global mean surface temperature response to radiative perturbation"}]}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1029/2003gl018141"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1002/jgrd.50171_references_DOI_QFqqmLigiszWkv56ibHZgTVbrZP"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1007/s40641-015-0007-5_references_DOI_QFqqmLigiszWkv56ibHZgTVbrZP"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1186/s40645-016-0096-3_references_DOI_QFqqmLigiszWkv56ibHZgTVbrZP"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.4116/jaqua.48.143_references_DOI_QFqqmLigiszWkv56ibHZgTVbrZP"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.5194/acp-21-853-2021_references_DOI_QFqqmLigiszWkv56ibHZgTVbrZP"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1007/s00382-018-4478-7_references_DOI_QFqqmLigiszWkv56ibHZgTVbrZP"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1029/2018gl079826_references_DOI_QFqqmLigiszWkv56ibHZgTVbrZP"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024_references_DOI_QFqqmLigiszWkv56ibHZgTVbrZP"}]}