Forest cover and open land drive the distribution and dynamics of the breeding sites for urban-dwelling Northern Goshawks

Abstract Land cover change accompanying large-scale and rapid urbanization has caused major losses to biodiversity, with urban planning that incorporates biodiversity conservation being urgently needed. Understanding how land cover impacts the distribution and dynamics of breeding sites of biodiversity indicator species could facilitate the creation of long-term, landscape-scale urban planning to enhance biodiversity. Here, we identified land cover factors that influence the distribution and dynamics of the breeding sites of goshawks, a biodiversity indicator species, in the urban areas of Kanagawa, Japan. We analyzed how breeding site presence and absence data were correlated with land cover factors using a logistic regression model. To evaluate the dynamics in breeding site distribution, a meta-population dynamics model was used to analyze the relationship between breeding site occupancy history and land cover factors over 6 years. Forest cover, open land, and highly vegetated urban cover positively affected the distribution of goshawk breeding sites. However, the relative importance of highly vegetated urban cover was not as high as forest cover or open land. Forest cover negatively affected local extinction probability, while forest cover and open areas positively affected local colonization probability. In comparison, highly vegetated urban cover had low relative importance for the distribution of breeding sites, with no relationship being detected for breeding site distribution dynamics. The importance of forest cover and open land for both the distribution and dynamics of goshawk breeding sites emphasizes the importance of these land cover types for the breeding of urban-dwelling goshawks. Therefore, managers should focus on maintaining forests and open land to conserve goshawk breeding sites in urban areas to facilitate their long-term viability. Highly vegetated urban cover was considered to be less important for the long-term viability of goshawk breeding sites.