DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY OF SINGAPORE’S MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

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  • YOUNG BIN AHN
    School of Economics, Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, P. R. China
  • YOICHI TSUCHIYA
    Graduate School of International Cultural Studies, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan

Bibliographic Information

Published
2019-11-01
Resource Type
journal article
DOI
  • 10.1142/s0217590819500541
Publisher
World Scientific Pub Co Pte Ltd

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<jats:p>This study examines the directional accuracy of Singapore’s macroeconomic forecasts by professional forecasters, government agencies (i.e., central bank and Ministry of Trade and Industry, MTI), and international organizations. The results show that government agencies provide the most directionally accurate forecasts, suggesting that the macroeconomic and monetary policies are effective. Current-year forecasts are generally directionally accurate, with disparities among forecasters for next-year forecasts. Regarding GDP growth, the MTI and International Monetary Fund (IMF) provide directionally accurate forecasts up to four quarters ahead, whereas other forecasters provide them for at most three quarters ahead. For consumer price index inflation, except for the IMF, all others provide directionally accurate forecasts up to four quarters ahead.</jats:p>

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