{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361975846017719680.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.1142/s0217590819500541"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/S0217590819500541"}}],"resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","dc:title":[{"@value":"DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY OF SINGAPORE’S MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:p>This study examines the directional accuracy of Singapore’s macroeconomic forecasts by professional forecasters, government agencies (i.e., central bank and Ministry of Trade and Industry, MTI), and international organizations. The results show that government agencies provide the most directionally accurate forecasts, suggesting that the macroeconomic and monetary policies are effective. Current-year forecasts are generally directionally accurate, with disparities among forecasters for next-year forecasts. Regarding GDP growth, the MTI and International Monetary Fund (IMF) provide directionally accurate forecasts up to four quarters ahead, whereas other forecasters provide them for at most three quarters ahead. For consumer price index inflation, except for the IMF, all others provide directionally accurate forecasts up to four quarters ahead.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381975846017719680","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"YOUNG BIN AHN"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"School of Economics, Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, P. R. China"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1420282801189842176","@type":"Researcher","personIdentifier":[{"@type":"KAKEN_RESEARCHERS","@value":"70711620"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"1000070711620"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000283158702"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000009030377"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000005717469"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000401640180"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000401665646"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000009813684"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000004498370"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000258135206"}],"foaf:name":[{"@value":"YOICHI TSUCHIYA"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Graduate School of International Cultural Studies, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"02175908"},{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"17936837"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"The Singapore Economic Review"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"World Scientific Pub Co Pte Ltd"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2019-11-01","prism:volume":"68","prism:number":"05","prism:startingPage":"1569","prism:endingPage":"1583"},"reviewed":"false","url":[{"@id":"https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/S0217590819500541"}],"createdAt":"2019-10-01","modifiedAt":"2024-07-24","project":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1040282256979822208","@type":"Project","projectIdentifier":[{"@type":"KAKEN","@value":"18K12775"},{"@type":"JGN","@value":"JP18K12775"},{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-18K12775/"}],"notation":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"国際機関予測の評価と民間経済主体への影響に関する研究"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Evaluation of forecasts by international organizations and their impacts on private forecasts"}]}],"relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050012570395177216","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"The directional accuracy of 15-months-ahead forecasts made by the IMF"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050856995325293568","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Are 16-month-ahead forecasts useful? A directional analysis of Japanese GDP forecasts"},{"@value":"Are 16‐month‐ahead forecasts useful? A directional analysis of Japanese GDP forecasts"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360011146196080256","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Directional accuracy tests of long-term interest rate forecasts"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360292620721363456","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"The accuracy of European growth and inflation forecasts"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360292621502732672","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360574093733046528","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"On the directional accuracy of forecasts of emerging market exchange rates"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360574094833566464","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"The Macro Forecasting Record of the Indonesian Financial Authorities, 2004–15"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360855568714229504","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Do inflation targets anchor inflation expectations?"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360855569863531648","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361418518726848640","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Purchasing and supply managers provide early clues on the direction of the US economy: An application of a new market-timing test"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361699995621273600","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Evaluating Predictions of Change"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361699995854767872","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Exploring Survey‐Based Inflation Forecasts"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361981468816220544","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Evaluating consumer sentiments as predictors of UK household consumption behavior"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361981470047365376","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361981470643325696","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Economic and statistical measures of forecast accuracy"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361981470779280512","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Are economic forecasts valuable?"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1362262943764459520","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1362544419794011904","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1362544420236992512","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Directional analysis of consumers’ forecasts of inflation in a small open economy: evidence from South Korea"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1362544421389323392","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1362825893330925568","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"An evaluation of Chinese macroeconomic forecasts"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1363107368490083200","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Does consumer sentiment accurately forecast UK household consumption? Are there any comparisons to be made with the US?"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1363107370766394624","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Rationality of inflation–output forecasts of MMS survey: international evidence"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1363388844371318784","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"A directional analysis of Federal Reserve predictions of growth in unit labor costs and productivity"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1363388846178922368","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Are government and IMF forecasts useful? An application of a new market-timing test"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1363670318574938624","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Are OECD forecasts rational and useful?: a directional analysis"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1363670320733542144","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"The accuracy of IMF and OECD forecasts for G7 countries"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1363951794869551488","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"BUSINESS CYCLES IN SINGAPORE: STYLIZED FACTS FOR A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1363951795633436800","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1364233268800061056","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Predictions of growth in U.S. corporate profits: Asymmetric vs. symmetric loss"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1364233270445030272","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"MANAGED FLOAT EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM: THE SINGAPORE EXPERIENCE"}]}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1142/s0217590819500541"},{"@type":"KAKEN","@value":"PRODUCT-22777034"},{"@type":"OPENAIRE","@value":"doi_dedup___::f2926095b811c8dcab6bace05f807fce"}]}