{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1361981470133679616.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.1002/2013jb010380"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2F2013JB010380"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2013JB010380"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"The seismic cycle at subduction thrusts: Insights from seismo‐thermo‐mechanical models"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:p>The underestimation of the size of recent megathrust earthquakes illustrates our limited understanding of their spatiotemporal occurrence and governing physics. To unravel their relation to associated subduction dynamics and long‐term deformation, we developed a 2‐D continuum viscoelastoplastic model that uses an Eulerian‐Lagrangian finite difference framework with similar on‐ and off‐fault physics. We extend the validation of this numerical tool to a realistic subduction zone setting that resembles Southern Chile. The resulting quasi‐periodic pattern of quasi‐characteristic <jats:italic>M</jats:italic>8–<jats:italic>M</jats:italic>9 megathrust events compares quantitatively with observed recurrence and earthquake source parameters, albeit at very slow coseismic speeds. Without any data fitting, surface displacements agree with GPS data recorded before and during the 2010 <jats:italic>M</jats:italic>8.8 Maule earthquake, including the presence of a second‐order flexural bulge. These surface displacements show cycle‐to‐cycle variations of slip deficits, which overall accommodate ∼5% of permanent internal shortening. We find that thermally (and stress) driven creep governs a spontaneous conditionally stable downdip transition zone between temperatures of ∼350°C and ∼450°C. Ruptures initiate above it (and below the forearc Moho), propagate within it, interspersed by small intermittent events, and arrest below it as ductile shearing relaxes stresses. Ruptures typically propagate upward along lithological boundaries and widen as pressures drop. The main thrust is constrained to be weak due to fluid‐induced weakening required to sustain regular subduction and to generate events with natural characteristics (fluid pressures of ∼75–99% of solid pressures). The agreement with a range of seismological, geodetic, and geological observations demonstrates the validity and strength of this physically consistent seismo‐thermo‐mechanical approach.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380294643844051339","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Y. van Dinther"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Swiss Seismological Service ETH Zürich  Zürich Switzerland"},{"@value":"Institute of Geophysics ETH Zürich  Zürich Switzerland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381981470133679621","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"T. V. Gerya"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Institute of Geophysics ETH Zürich  Zürich Switzerland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381981470133679618","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"L. A. Dalguer"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Swiss Seismological Service ETH Zürich  Zürich Switzerland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381981470133679620","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"P. M. Mai"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Division of Physical Sciences and Engineering KAUST  Thuwal Saudi Arabia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381981470133679616","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"G. Morra"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"School of Geosciences, Department of Physics University of Louisiana  Lafayette Louisiana USA"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1381981470133679619","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"D. Giardini"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Institute of Geophysics ETH Zürich  Zürich Switzerland"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"21699313"},{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"21699356"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2013-12","prism:volume":"118","prism:number":"12","prism:startingPage":"6183","prism:endingPage":"6202"},"reviewed":"false","dc:rights":["http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor"],"url":[{"@id":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2F2013JB010380"},{"@id":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2013JB010380"}],"createdAt":"2013-11-15","modifiedAt":"2023-10-04","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050294045370256000","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Slab dehydration and earthquake distribution beneath southwestern and central Japan based on three‐dimensional thermal modeling"},{"@value":"Slab dehydration and earthquake distribution beneath southwestern and central Japan based on three dimensional thermal modeling"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050579212423889280","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Steady‐State Effective Normal Stress in Subduction Zones Based on Hydraulic Models and Implications for Shallow Slow Earthquakes"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360584339753519360","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Shallow Low‐Velocity Layer in the Hyuga‐Nada Accretionary Prism and Its Hydrological Implications: Insights From a Passive Seismic Array"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/2051996266990213504","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"MCMC inversion of the transient and steady-state creep flow law parameters of dunite under dry and wet conditions"}]}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1002/2013jb010380"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1002/2016gl072295_references_DOI_aGYzP7Fh1QHK4vAuJkPKeNCbKly"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1029/2022jb025995_references_DOI_aGYzP7Fh1QHK4vAuJkPKeNCbKly"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1186/s40623-021-01543-9_references_DOI_aGYzP7Fh1QHK4vAuJkPKeNCbKly"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1029/2022jb026298_references_DOI_aGYzP7Fh1QHK4vAuJkPKeNCbKly"}]}