{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1362257544311806592.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.3847/1538-4365/ab2e12"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4365/ab2e12/pdf"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4365/ab2e12"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.48550/arxiv.1907.02905"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"HANDLE","@value":"10454/17193"}}],"resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","dc:title":[{"@value":"A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. II. Benchmarks, Metrics, and Performance Results for Operational Solar Flare Forecasting Systems"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title>\n               <jats:p>Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our solar system. Their impulsive and often drastic radiative increases, particularly at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to understand solar flares to the point of being able to forecast them. As data and algorithms improve dramatically, questions must be asked concerning how well the forecasting performs; crucially, we must ask how to rigorously measure performance in order to critically gauge any improvements. Building upon earlier-developed methodology of Paper I (Barnes et al. 2016), international representatives of regional warning centers and research facilities assembled in 2017 at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan to, for the first time, directly compare the performance of operational solar flare forecasting methods. Multiple quantitative evaluation metrics are employed, with the focus and discussion on evaluation methodologies given the restrictions of operational forecasting. Numerous methods performed consistently above the “no-skill” level, although which method scored top marks is decisively a function of flare event definition and the metric used; there was no single winner. Following in this paper series, we ask why the performances differ by examining implementation details (Leka et al. 2019), and then we present a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors in Paper IV (Park et al. 2019). With these works, this team presents a well-defined and robust methodology for evaluating solar flare forecasting methods in both research and operational frameworks and today’s performance benchmarks against which improvements and new methods may be compared.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380017282197385357","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"K. D. Leka"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806478","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Sung-Hong Park"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806336","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Kanya Kusano"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806342","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Jesse Andries"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806477","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Graham Barnes"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806468","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Suzy Bingham"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806467","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"D. Shaun Bloomfield"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806350","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Aoife E. McCloskey"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806346","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Veronique Delouille"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806341","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"David Falconer"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806475","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Peter T. Gallagher"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806343","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Manolis K. Georgoulis"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806476","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Yuki Kubo"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806339","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Kangjin Lee"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806466","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Sangwoo Lee"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806351","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Vasily Lobzin"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806474","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"JunChul Mun"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806348","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Sophie A. Murray"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806354","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Tarek A. M. Hamad Nageem"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806345","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Rami Qahwaji"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806472","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Michael Sharpe"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806473","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Robert A. Steenburgh"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806353","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Graham Steward"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382257544311806464","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Michael Terkildsen"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"00670049"},{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"15384365"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"American Astronomical Society"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2019-08-01","prism:volume":"243","prism:number":"2","prism:startingPage":"36"},"reviewed":"false","dc:rights":["https://iopscience.iop.org/page/copyright","https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining"],"url":[{"@id":"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4365/ab2e12/pdf"},{"@id":"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4365/ab2e12"}],"createdAt":"2019-08-16","modifiedAt":"2024-01-17","foaf:topic":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=F300","dc:title":"F300"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=FOS:%20Physical%20sciences","dc:title":"FOS: Physical sciences"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=F500","dc:title":"F500"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=Space%20Physics%20(physics.space-ph)","dc:title":"Space Physics (physics.space-ph)"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=Flares%20-%20sun","dc:title":"Flares - sun"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=Statistical%20-%20sun","dc:title":"Statistical - sun"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=Astrophysics%20-%20Solar%20and%20Stellar%20Astrophysics","dc:title":"Astrophysics - Solar and Stellar Astrophysics"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=Physics%20-%20Space%20Physics","dc:title":"Physics - Space Physics"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=Magnetic%20fields","dc:title":"Magnetic fields"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=Physics%20-%20Data%20Analysis,%20Statistics%20and%20Probability","dc:title":"Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=Methods","dc:title":"Methods"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=Astrophysics%20-%20Instrumentation%20and%20Methods%20for%20Astrophysics","dc:title":"Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=Instrumentation%20and%20Methods%20for%20Astrophysics%20(astro-ph.IM)","dc:title":"Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics (astro-ph.IM)"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=Solar%20and%20Stellar%20Astrophysics%20(astro-ph.SR)","dc:title":"Solar and Stellar Astrophysics (astro-ph.SR)"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=Data%20Analysis,%20Statistics%20and%20Probability%20(physics.data-an)","dc:title":"Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an)"}],"project":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1040000781833807488","@type":"Project","projectIdentifier":[{"@type":"KAKEN","@value":"15H05814"},{"@type":"JGN","@value":"JP15H05814"},{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PLANNED-15H05814/"}],"notation":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"太陽嵐の発生機構の解明と予測"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Understanding and prediction of the solar storm"}]}],"relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360005744496980224","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["references","isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. 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