{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1362262945478808320.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.1029/2012gl051644"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1029%2F2012GL051644"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2012GL051644"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"Evaluation of short‐term climate change prediction in multi‐model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:p>This study assesses the CMIP5 decadal hindcast/forecast simulations of seven state‐of‐the‐art ocean‐atmosphere coupled models. Each decadal prediction consists of simulations over a 10 year period each of which are initialized every five years from climate states of 1960/1961 to 2005/2006. Most of the models overestimate trends, whereby the models predict less warming or even cooling in the earlier decades compared to observations and too much warming in recent decades. All models show high prediction skill for surface temperature over the Indian, North Atlantic and western Pacific Oceans where the externally forced component and low‐frequency climate variability is dominant. However, low prediction skill is found over the equatorial and North Pacific Ocean. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index is predicted in most of the models with significant skill, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index shows relatively low predictive skill. The multi‐model ensemble has in general better‐forecast quality than the single‐model systems for global mean surface temperature, AMO and PDO.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380298342060676992","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Hye‐Mi Kim"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382262945478808320","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Peter J. Webster"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382262945478808321","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Judith A. Curry"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"00948276"},{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"19448007"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"Geophysical Research Letters"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2012-05-16","prism:volume":"39","prism:number":"10","prism:startingPage":"L10701"},"reviewed":"false","dc:rights":["http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor"],"url":[{"@id":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1029%2F2012GL051644"},{"@id":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2012GL051644"}],"createdAt":"2012-04-18","modifiedAt":"2023-10-30","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360004229805841280","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Interbasin effects of the Indian Ocean on Pacific decadal climate change"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360004234603326208","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Observed and hindcasted subdecadal variability of the tropical Pacific climate"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360021390584358912","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360025429425938688","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Multi‐Year Potential Predictability of the Wintertime Heavy Precipitation Potentials in East Asia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360285704782351616","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Multiyear climate prediction with initialization based on 4D‐Var data assimilation"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360565168765614464","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360848661488703360","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Origin of Decadal-Scale, Eastward-Propagating Heat Content Anomalies in the North Pacific*"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360861707128157312","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Atlantic impacts on subdecadal warming over the tropical Pacific in the 2000s"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390001205223937152","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Error Sensitivity to Initial Climate States in Pacific Decadal Hindcasts"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390001288083532416","@type":"Article","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Simultaneous Forecasting of Meteorological Data Based on a Self-Organizing Incremental Neural Network"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390845713075415040","@type":"Article","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Decadal Prediction Skill of BCC-CSM1.1 with Different Initialization Strategies"}]}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1029/2012gl051644"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1002/2016gl069940_references_DOI_M04n8CnjZ47IN2OgSdJ8xuqut3E"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1093/icesjms/fsz026_references_DOI_M04n8CnjZ47IN2OgSdJ8xuqut3E"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1273770_references_DOI_M04n8CnjZ47IN2OgSdJ8xuqut3E"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1029/2024gl108312_references_DOI_M04n8CnjZ47IN2OgSdJ8xuqut3E"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1002/2016gl067895_references_DOI_M04n8CnjZ47IN2OgSdJ8xuqut3E"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1175/jcli-d-15-0508.1_references_DOI_M04n8CnjZ47IN2OgSdJ8xuqut3E"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.20965/jaciii.2018.p0900_references_DOI_M04n8CnjZ47IN2OgSdJ8xuqut3E"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1175/jcli-d-13-00102.1_references_DOI_M04n8CnjZ47IN2OgSdJ8xuqut3E"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.2151/sola.2014-009_references_DOI_M04n8CnjZ47IN2OgSdJ8xuqut3E"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.3389/fclim.2022.1040352_references_DOI_M04n8CnjZ47IN2OgSdJ8xuqut3E"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.2151/jmsj.2019-043_references_DOI_M04n8CnjZ47IN2OgSdJ8xuqut3E"}]}