{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1362262946093519872.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.1029/gl007i004p00279"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1029%2FGL007i004p00279"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/GL007i004p00279"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"NAID","@value":"30034766618"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"Time‐predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:p>We present historical and geomorphological evidence of a regularity in earthquake recurrence at three different sites of plate convergence around the Japan arcs. The regularity shows that the larger an earthquake is, the longer is the following quiet period. In other words, the time interval between two successive large earthquakes is approximately proportional to the amount of coseismic displacement of the <jats:styled-content>preceding</jats:styled-content> earthquake and not of the <jats:styled-content>following</jats:styled-content> earthquake. The regularity enables us, in principle, to predict the approximate occurrence time of earthquakes. The data set includes 1) a historical document describing repeated measurements of water depth at Murotsu near the focal region of Nankaido earthquakes, 2) precise levelling and <jats:sup>14</jats:sup>C dating of Holocene uplifted terraces in the southern Boso peninsula facing the Sagami trough, and 3) similar geomorphological data on exposed Holocene coral reefs in Kikai Island along the Ryukyu arc.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382262946093519873","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Kunihiko Shimazaki"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382262946093519872","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Takashi Nakata"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"00948276"},{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"19448007"},{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"https://id.crossref.org/issn/00948276"},{"@type":"NCID","@value":"AA00657102"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"Geophysical Research Letters"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)"}],"prism:publicationDate":"1980-04","prism:volume":"7","prism:number":"4","prism:startingPage":"279","prism:endingPage":"282"},"reviewed":"false","dc:rights":["http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor"],"url":[{"@id":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1029%2FGL007i004p00279"},{"@id":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/GL007i004p00279"}],"createdAt":"2008-02-06","modifiedAt":"2023-09-23","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050564285570396928","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Coseismic thermal pressurization can notably prolong earthquake recurrence intervals on weak rate and state friction faults: Numerical experiments using different constitutive equations"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360002216708392064","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Bayesian forecasting of recurrent earthquakes and predictive performance for a small sample size"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360004231546203136","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Coulomb Stress Evolution History as Implication on the Pattern of Strong Earthquakes along the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang Fault System, China"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360004233284993152","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Experiments on granular rheology: Effects of particle size and fluid viscosity"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360004240201197056","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Intermittency of earthquake cycles in a model of a three-degree-of-freedom spring-block system"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360283691685765888","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time‐ and slip‐predictable models: 1. 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