{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1362825895929057664.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.1002/2017sw001614"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2F2017SW001614"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2017SW001614"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/2017SW001614"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"http://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/chorus/v1/articles/10.1002%2F2017SW001614"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2017SW001614"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self‐similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%–35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide‐angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first‐order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun‐Earth L5 point.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1380004236853291911","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"C. Möstl"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Space Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences  Graz Austria"},{"@value":"IGAM‐Kanzelhöhe Observatory, Institute of Physics University of Graz  Graz Austria"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057680","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"A. Isavnin"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Physics University of Helsinki  Helsinki Finland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057676","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"P. D. Boakes"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Space Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences  Graz Austria"},{"@value":"IGAM‐Kanzelhöhe Observatory, Institute of Physics University of Graz  Graz Austria"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057671","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"E. K. J. Kilpua"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Physics University of Helsinki  Helsinki Finland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057537","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"J. A. Davies"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"RAL Space Rutherford Appleton Laboratory  Harwell UK"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057682","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"R. A. Harrison"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"RAL Space Rutherford Appleton Laboratory  Harwell UK"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057678","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"D. Barnes"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"RAL Space Rutherford Appleton Laboratory  Harwell UK"},{"@value":"University College London  London UK"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057679","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"V. Krupar"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS  Prague Czech Republic"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057668","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"J. P. Eastwood"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Blackett Laboratory Imperial College London  London UK"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057669","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"S. W. Good"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Blackett Laboratory Imperial College London  London UK"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057665","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"R. J. Forsyth"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Blackett Laboratory Imperial College London  London UK"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057664","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"V. Bothmer"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Institute for Astrophysics University of Göttingen  Göttingen Germany"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057681","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"M. A. Reiss"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"IGAM‐Kanzelhöhe Observatory, Institute of Physics University of Graz  Graz Austria"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057670","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"T. Amerstorfer"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Space Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences  Graz Austria"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057672","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"R. M. Winslow"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space University of New Hampshire  Durham New Hampshire USA"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057673","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"B. J. Anderson"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Applied Physics Laboratory The Johns Hopkins University  Laurel Maryland USA"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057674","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"L. C. Philpott"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences University of British Columbia  Vancouver British Columbia Canada"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057666","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"L. Rodriguez"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Solar Terrestrial Center of Excellence‐SIDC Royal Observatory of Belgium  Brussels Belgium"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057536","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"A. P. Rouillard"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Institut de Recherche en Astrophysique et Planétologie Université de Toulouse (UPS)  Toulouse France"},{"@value":"Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique  Toulouse France"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057667","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"P. Gallagher"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"School of Physics Trinity College Dublin  Ireland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057677","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"T. Nieves‐Chinchilla"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Heliophysics Science Division GSFC/NASA  Greenbelt Maryland USA"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1382825895929057675","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"T. L. Zhang"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Space Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences  Graz Austria"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"15427390"},{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"15427390"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"Space Weather"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2017-07","prism:volume":"15","prism:number":"7","prism:startingPage":"955","prism:endingPage":"970"},"reviewed":"false","dc:rights":["http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"],"url":[{"@id":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2F2017SW001614"},{"@id":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2017SW001614"},{"@id":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/2017SW001614"},{"@id":"http://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/chorus/v1/articles/10.1002%2F2017SW001614"},{"@id":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2017SW001614"}],"createdAt":"2017-07-06","modifiedAt":"2023-09-10","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/2050870367067472128","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Development of a coronal mass ejection arrival time forecasting system using interplanetary scintillation observations"}]}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1002/2017sw001614"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1186/s40623-019-1019-5_references_DOI_Q7kr5YZFfzU3PmYHnkWPWYbmhIQ"}]}