{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1363670319406951040.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.1175/bams-d-18-0194.1"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/3/bams-d-18-0194.1.xml"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"http://journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article-pdf/101/3/E303/4985036/bamsd180194.pdf"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/journals/bams/101/3/bams-d-18-0194.1.xml"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Model projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed. Observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate rising global TC risk for some metrics that are projected to impact multiple regions. A 2°C anthropogenic global warming is projected to impact TC activity as follows. 1) The most confident TC-related projection is that sea level rise accompanying the warming will lead to higher storm inundation levels, assuming all other factors are unchanged. 2) For TC precipitation rates, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase globally, with a median projected increase of 14%, or close to the rate of tropical water vapor increase with warming, at constant relative humidity. 3) For TC intensity, 10 of 11 authors had at least medium-to-high confidence that the global average will increase. The median projected increase in lifetime maximum surface wind speeds is about 5% (range: 1%–10%) in available higher-resolution studies. 4) For the global proportion (as opposed to frequency) of TCs that reach very intense (category 4–5) levels, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase, with a median projected change of +13%. Author opinion was more mixed and confidence levels lower for the following projections: 5) a further poleward expansion of the latitude of maximum TC intensity in the western North Pacific; 6) a decrease of global TC frequency, as projected in most studies; 7) an increase in global very intense TC frequency (category 4–5), seen most prominently in higher-resolution models; and 8) a slowdown in TC translation speed.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383670319406951043","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Thomas Knutson"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383670319406951049","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Suzana J. Camargo"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383670319406951050","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Johnny C. L. Chan"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383670319406951048","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Kerry Emanuel"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383670319406951044","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Chang-Hoi Ho"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383670319406951047","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"James Kossin"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information/Center for Weather and Climate, Madison, Wisconsin"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383670319406951040","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Mrutyunjay Mohapatra"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383670319406951045","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Masaki Satoh"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383670319406951041","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Masato Sugi"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383670319406951046","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Kevin Walsh"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383670319406951042","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Liguang Wu"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"00030007"},{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"15200477"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"American Meteorological Society"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2020-03","prism:volume":"101","prism:number":"3","prism:startingPage":"E303","prism:endingPage":"E322"},"reviewed":"false","dcterms:accessRights":"http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2","url":[{"@id":"https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/3/bams-d-18-0194.1.xml"},{"@id":"http://journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article-pdf/101/3/E303/4985036/bamsd180194.pdf"},{"@id":"https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/journals/bams/101/3/bams-d-18-0194.1.xml"}],"createdAt":"2019-08-06","modifiedAt":"2021-06-12","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050855511182976896","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Recent nationwide climate change impact assessments of natural hazards in Japan and East Asia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360017282203139072","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal 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