{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1363670319475194880.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.1038/s41467-018-07690-0"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07690-0.pdf"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07690-0"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"Prediction of the strength and timing of sunspot cycle 25 reveal decadal-scale space environmental conditions"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>The Sun’s activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth’s atmosphere. However, predicting the solar cycle is challenging. Current understanding indicates a short window for prediction best achieved at previous cycle minima. Utilizing magnetic field evolution models for the Sun’s surface and interior we perform the first century-scale, data-driven simulations of solar activity and present a scheme for extending the prediction window to a decade. Our ensemble forecast indicates cycle 25 would be similar or slightly stronger than the current cycle and peak around 2024. Sunspot cycle 25 may thus reverse the substantial weakening trend in solar activity which has led to speculation of an imminent Maunder-like grand minimum and cooling global climate. Our simulations demonstrate fluctuation in the tilt angle distribution of sunspots is the dominant mechanism responsible for solar cycle variability.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383670319475194881","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Prantika Bhowmik"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383670319475194880","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Dibyendu Nandy"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"20411723"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"Nature Communications"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2018-12-06","prism:volume":"9","prism:number":"1","prism:startingPage":"5209"},"reviewed":"false","dc:rights":["https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0","https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0"],"url":[{"@id":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07690-0.pdf"},{"@id":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07690-0"}],"createdAt":"2018-11-30","modifiedAt":"2022-12-20","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360306904396420864","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"The Solar and Geomagnetic Storms in 2024 May: A Flash Data Report"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360580232400186752","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Inference of magnetic field during the Dalton minimum: Case study with recorded sunspot areas"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360852714533030528","@type":"Article","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Magnetic-Pulse Generated Cavitons in an Electromagnetic Plasma: A Two-Fluid Numerical Simulation"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360857593708518400","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Critical Science Plan for the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST)"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/2050870367078673408","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"A review of the SCOSTEP’s 5-year scientific program VarSITI—Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact"}]}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1038/s41467-018-07690-0"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1186/s40645-021-00410-1_references_DOI_IRNmBLwh6m4TBQQJkNcUm7R84gp"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.3847/1538-4357/ad9335_references_DOI_IRNmBLwh6m4TBQQJkNcUm7R84gp"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1093/pasj/psac032_references_DOI_IRNmBLwh6m4TBQQJkNcUm7R84gp"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.7566/jpsj.90.114501_references_DOI_IRNmBLwh6m4TBQQJkNcUm7R84gp"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1007/s11207-021-01789-2_references_DOI_IRNmBLwh6m4TBQQJkNcUm7R84gp"}]}