{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1363951795196299136.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.1029/2018gl081091"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018GL081091"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1029/2018GL081091"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018GL081091"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"Predicting Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2018 and Its Climate Impacts With a Multimodel Ensemble"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are significant source of enhanced subseasonal predictability, but whether this source is untapped in operational models remains an open question. Here we report on the prediction of the SSW on 12 February 2018, its dynamical precursors, and surface climate impacts by an ensemble of dynamical forecast models. The ensemble forecast from 1 February predicted 3 times increased odds of an SSW compared to climatology, although the lead time for SSW prediction varied among individual models. Errors in the forecast location of a Ural high and underestimated magnitude of upward wave activity flux reduced SSW forecast skill. Although the SSW's downward influence was not well forecasted, the observed northern Eurasia cold anomaly following SSW was predicted, albeit with a weaker magnitude, due to persistent tropospheric anomalies. The ensemble forecast from 8 February predicted the SSW, its subsequent downward influence, and a long‐lasting cold anomaly at the surface.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383951795196299138","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Alexey Yu. Karpechko"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Finnish Meteorological Institute  Helsinki Finland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383951795196299137","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Andrew Charlton‐Perez"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Meteorology University of Reading  Reading UK"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383951795196299136","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Magdalena Balmaseda"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts  Reading UK"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383951795196299139","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Nicholas Tyrrell"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Finnish Meteorological Institute  Helsinki Finland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1383951795196299140","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Frederic Vitart"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts  Reading UK"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"00948276"},{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"19448007"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"Geophysical Research Letters"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2018-12-26","prism:volume":"45","prism:number":"24","prism:startingPage":"13538"},"reviewed":"false","dc:rights":["http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor"],"url":[{"@id":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018GL081091"},{"@id":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1029/2018GL081091"},{"@id":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018GL081091"}],"createdAt":"2018-12-11","modifiedAt":"2023-09-05","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360021390749665536","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Intriguing Aspects of Polar-to-Tropical Mesospheric Teleconnections during the 2018 SSW: A Meteor Radar Network Study"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360022306718287744","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Long Range Prediction and the Stratosphere"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360869856024811520","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Atmospheric Semidiurnal Solar Tide Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the JAGUAR‐DAS Whole Neutral Atmosphere Reanalysis (JAWARA) During 2004–2023"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/2051996266981893888","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Numerical forecast of the upper atmosphere and ionosphere using GAIA"}]}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1029/2018gl081091"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.3390/atmos14081302_references_DOI_D9xuMjbHuvaKVFxQiRflYmcqYe9"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1186/s40623-020-01307-x_references_DOI_D9xuMjbHuvaKVFxQiRflYmcqYe9"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022_references_DOI_D9xuMjbHuvaKVFxQiRflYmcqYe9"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1029/2024ja033688_references_DOI_D9xuMjbHuvaKVFxQiRflYmcqYe9"}]}