{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1364233269298545280.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.1029/2007jb005427"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1029%2F2007JB005427"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2007JB005427"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"Magnitude uncertainties impact seismic rate estimates, forecasts, and predictability experiments"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:p>The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) aims to prospectively test time‐dependent earthquake probability forecasts on their consistency with observations. To compete, time‐dependent seismicity models are calibrated on earthquake catalog data. However, catalogs contain much observational uncertainty. We study the impact of magnitude uncertainties on rate estimates in clustering models, on their forecasts and on their evaluation by CSEP's consistency tests. First, we quantify magnitude uncertainties. We find that magnitude uncertainty is more heavy‐tailed than a Gaussian, such as a double‐sided exponential distribution, with scale parameter <jats:italic>ν</jats:italic><jats:sub><jats:italic>c</jats:italic></jats:sub> = 0.1 – 0.3. Second, we study the impact of such noise on the forecasts of a simple clustering model which captures the main ingredients of popular short term models. We prove that the deviations of noisy forecasts from an exact forecast are power law distributed in the tail with exponent <jats:italic>α</jats:italic> = (<jats:italic>aν</jats:italic><jats:sub><jats:italic>c</jats:italic></jats:sub>)<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup>, where <jats:italic>a</jats:italic> is the exponent of the productivity law of aftershocks. We further prove that the typical scale of the fluctuations remains sensitively dependent on the specific catalog. Third, we study how noisy forecasts are evaluated in CSEP consistency tests. Noisy forecasts are rejected more frequently than expected for a given confidence limit because the Poisson assumption of the consistency tests is inadequate for short‐term forecast evaluations. To capture the idiosyncrasies of each model together with any propagating uncertainties, the forecasts need to specify the entire likelihood distribution of seismic rates.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269298545281","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Maximilian J. Werner"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Earth and Space Sciences, and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics University of California  Los Angeles California USA"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269298545280","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Didier Sornette"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Earth and Space Sciences, and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics University of California  Los Angeles California USA"},{"@value":"ETH Zürich Entrepreneurial Risks, Department of Management, Technology and Economics  Zürich Switzerland"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"01480227"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2008-08","prism:volume":"113","prism:number":"B8","prism:startingPage":"B01204"},"reviewed":"false","dc:rights":["http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor"],"url":[{"@id":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1029%2F2007JB005427"},{"@id":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2007JB005427"}],"createdAt":"2008-07-31","modifiedAt":"2023-09-25","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050025031478354944","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Volcanic plume measurements using a UAV for the 2014 Mt. Ontake eruption"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360004229802538752","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Intermediate‐term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence: Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360004230694301696","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Degassing Activity of a Volcanic Crater Lake: Volcanic Plume Measurements at the Yudamari Crater Lake, Aso Volcano, Japan"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360004238190854784","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360025429444021632","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Earthquake Predictability and Forecast Evaluation Using Likelihood-Based Marginal and Conditional Scores"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360285710546412672","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Predictability study on the aftershock sequence following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake: first results"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360306906099724928","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Developing, Testing, and Communicating Earthquake Forecasts: Current Practices and Future Directions"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360588380618012032","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"A Bayesian Merging of Earthquake Magnitudes Determined by Multiple Seismic Networks"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390282680582277888","@type":"Article","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"CORRECTION-FACTOR MODEL OF RUPTURE DIRECTIVITY AND RADIATION PATTERN FOR EMPIRICAL GROUND-MOTION ATTENUATION RELATIONS OF CRUSTAL EARTHQUAKES"},{"@value":"地殻内地震の地震動の距離減衰式に対する破壊伝播効果と震源放射特性の補正係数モデル"}]}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1029/2007jb005427"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1002/2014jb011456_references_DOI_A94mSrxWjKi6Q0Zt5kaose1AtO7"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1007/978-3-642-36833-2_8_references_DOI_A94mSrxWjKi6Q0Zt5kaose1AtO7"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1785/0220180053_references_DOI_A94mSrxWjKi6Q0Zt5kaose1AtO7"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.3130/aijs.76.499_references_DOI_A94mSrxWjKi6Q0Zt5kaose1AtO7"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1785/0220240256_references_DOI_A94mSrxWjKi6Q0Zt5kaose1AtO7"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1111/j.1365-246x.2012.05626.x_references_DOI_A94mSrxWjKi6Q0Zt5kaose1AtO7"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1029/2023rg000823_references_DOI_Toz5gwQ9utuNxU5EFREzqos9brw"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1186/s40623-016-0418-0_references_DOI_A94mSrxWjKi6Q0Zt5kaose1AtO7"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1785/0220230404_references_DOI_A94mSrxWjKi6Q0Zt5kaose1AtO7"}]}