{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1364233269775136384.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.1002/ecm.1370"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fecm.1370"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecm.1370"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ecm.1370"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecm.1370"}}],"dc:title":[{"@value":"A comprehensive evaluation of predictive performance of 33 species distribution models at species and community levels"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@value":"<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>A large array of species distribution model (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">SDM</jats:styled-content>) approaches has been developed for explaining and predicting the occurrences of individual species or species assemblages. Given the wealth of existing models, it is unclear which models perform best for interpolation or extrapolation of existing data sets, particularly when one is concerned with species assemblages. We compared the predictive performance of 33 variants of 15 widely applied and recently emerged <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">SDM</jats:styled-content>s in the context of multispecies data, including both joint <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">SDM</jats:styled-content>s that model multiple species together, and stacked <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">SDM</jats:styled-content>s that model each species individually combining the predictions afterward. We offer a comprehensive evaluation of these <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">SDM</jats:styled-content> approaches by examining their performance in predicting withheld empirical validation data of different sizes representing five different taxonomic groups, and for prediction tasks related to both interpolation and extrapolation. We measure predictive performance by 12 measures of accuracy, discrimination power, calibration, and precision of predictions, for the biological levels of species occurrence, species richness, and community composition. Our results show large variation among the models in their predictive performance, especially for communities comprising many species that are rare. The results do not reveal any major trade‐offs among measures of model performance; the same models performed generally well in terms of accuracy, discrimination, and calibration, and for the biological levels of individual species, species richness, and community composition. In contrast, the models that gave the most precise predictions were not well calibrated, suggesting that poorly performing models can make overconfident predictions. However, none of the models performed well for all prediction tasks. As a general strategy, we therefore propose that researchers fit a small set of models showing complementary performance, and then apply a cross‐validation procedure involving separate data to establish which of these models performs best for the goal of the study.</jats:p>"}]}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136260","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Anna Norberg"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme University of Helsinki P.O. Box 65 Helsinki FI‐00014 Finland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136258","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Nerea Abrego"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Biology Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim N‐7491 Norway"},{"@value":"Department of Agricultural Sciences University of Helsinki P.O. Box 27 Helsinki FI‐00014 Finland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136394","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"F. Guillaume Blanchet"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Département de Biologie Université de Sherbrooke 2500 boulevard de l'Université Sherbrooke Quebec J1K 2R1 Canada"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136259","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Frederick R. Adler"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Mathematics University of Utah 155 South 1400 East Salt Lake City Utah 84112 USA"},{"@value":"School of Biological Sciences University of Utah 257 South 1400 East Salt Lake City Utah 84112 USA"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136518","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Barbara J. Anderson"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research Private Bag 1930 Dunedin 1954 New Zealand"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136400","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Jani Anttila"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme University of Helsinki P.O. Box 65 Helsinki FI‐00014 Finland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136397","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Miguel B. Araújo"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Departmento de Biogeografía y Cambio Global Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC) Calle José Gutiérrez Abascal 2 Madrid 28006 Spain"},{"@value":"Rui Nabeiro Biodiversity Chair Universidade de Évora Largo dos Colegiais Evora 7000 Portugal"},{"@value":"Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate Natural History Museum of Denmark University of Copenhagen Copenhagen 2100 Denmark"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136385","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Tad Dallas"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme University of Helsinki P.O. Box 65 Helsinki FI‐00014 Finland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136516","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"David Dunson"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Statistical Science Duke University P.O. Box 90251 Durham North Carolina 27708 USA"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136388","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Jane Elith"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"School of BioSciences University of Melbourne Parkville Victoria 3010 Australia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136401","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Scott D. Foster"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Hobart Tasmania Australia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136399","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Richard Fox"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Butterfly Conservation Manor Yard, East Lulworth Wareham BH20 5QP United Kingdom"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136257","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Janet Franklin"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Botany and Plant Sciences University of California Riverside California 92521 USA"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136386","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"William Godsoe"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Bio‐Protection Research Centre Lincoln University P.O. Box 85084 Lincoln 7647 New Zealand"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136517","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Antoine Guisan"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Ecology and Evolution (DEE) University of Lausanne, Biophore Lausanne CH‐1015 Switzerland"},{"@value":"Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics (IDYST) University of Lausanne, Geopolis Lausanne CH‐1015 Switzerland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136262","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Bob O'Hara"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Mathematical Sciences Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim N‐7491 Norway"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136519","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Nicole A. Hill"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Private Bag 49 Hobart Tasmania 7001 Australia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136390","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Robert D. Holt"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Biology The University of Florida Gainesville Florida 32611 USA"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136256","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Francis K. C. Hui"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Mathematical Sciences Institute The Australian National University Acton Australian Capital Territory 2601 Australia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136521","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Magne Husby"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Nord University Røstad Levanger 7600 Norway"},{"@value":"BirdLife Norway Sandgata 30B Trondheim 7012 Norway"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136392","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"John Atle Kålås"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Norwegian Institute for Nature Research P.O. Box 5685, Torgarden Trondheim NO‐7485 Norway"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136512","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Aleksi Lehikoinen"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology Finnish Museum of Natural History University of Helsinki P.O. Box 17 Helsinki FI‐00014 Finland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136387","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Miska Luoto"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Geosciences and Geography University of Helsinki P.O. Box 64 Helsinki 00014 Finland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136261","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Heidi K. Mod"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics (IDYST) University of Lausanne, Geopolis Lausanne CH‐1015 Switzerland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136391","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Graeme Newell"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Biodiversity Division Department of Environment, Land, Water & Planning Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research 123 Brown Street Heidelberg Victoria 3084 Australia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136384","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Ian Renner"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences The University of Newcastle University Drive Callaghan New South Wales 2308 Australia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136396","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Tomas Roslin"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Agricultural Sciences University of Helsinki P.O. Box 27 Helsinki FI‐00014 Finland"},{"@value":"Department of Ecology Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Box 7044 Uppsala 750 07 Sweden"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136513","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Janne Soininen"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Department of Geosciences and Geography University of Helsinki P.O. Box 64 Helsinki 00014 Finland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136514","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Wilfried Thuiller"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"CNRS LECA Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine University Grenoble Alpes Grenoble F‐38000 France"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136393","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Jarno Vanhatalo"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme University of Helsinki P.O. Box 65 Helsinki FI‐00014 Finland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136515","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"David Warton"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"School of Mathematics and Statistics Evolution & Ecology Research Centre University of New South Wales Sydney New South Wales 2052 Australia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136395","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Matt White"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Biodiversity Division Department of Environment, Land, Water & Planning Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research 123 Brown Street Heidelberg Victoria 3084 Australia"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136398","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Niklaus E. Zimmermann"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Dynamic Macroecology Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL Zuercherstrasse 111 Birmensdorf CH‐8903 Switzerland"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136520","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Dominique Gravel"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Département de Biologie Université de Sherbrooke 2500 boulevard de l'Université Sherbrooke Quebec J1K 2R1 Canada"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1384233269775136389","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@value":"Otso Ovaskainen"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@value":"Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme University of Helsinki P.O. Box 65 Helsinki FI‐00014 Finland"},{"@value":"Department of Biology Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim N‐7491 Norway"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"00129615"},{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"15577015"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@value":"Ecological Monographs"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@value":"Wiley"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2019-06-12","prism:volume":"89","prism:number":"3"},"reviewed":"false","dc:rights":["http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"],"url":[{"@id":"https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fecm.1370"},{"@id":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecm.1370"},{"@id":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ecm.1370"},{"@id":"https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecm.1370"}],"createdAt":"2019-05-02","modifiedAt":"2023-09-09","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050851087342348800","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Illuminating the intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of ecological stability across scales"}]}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1002/ecm.1370"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.1111/1440-1703.12214_references_DOI_GwNqGWAxlwVjtwSrkVgmCGIjrdp"}]}