Creativities Hidden by Hindsight Biases

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  • 後知恵バイアスが隠蔽する創造性
  • 企業イノベーションにおける2 つの創発メカニズムの解明:戦略行動による組織文化の創発と場による戦略行動の創発
  • Clarifying Two Types of Emergence Mechanisms in Enterprise Innovation: The Emergence of Organizational Culture Caused by Strategic Behaviors and the Emergence of Strategic Behavior Caused by ‘Ba’


The effects of hindsight biases are clarified to hide the creativities in enterprise inno- vations. The two stages of enterprise innovations are analyzed, and the two models of emergence mechanisms are proposed from the viewpoint of complex science. The first type is the emergence of strategic behaviors caused by ‘Ba’ to which few persons contribute. The problem-solving discourse between two persons are analyzed, and the discourse is classified into three inference categories of deduction, induction or abduction. By plotting these as innovation diagram, it is found that the emer- gence processes show fine structures of the successive chains of micro-abductions. This suggests that creativity may be governed by the acceptance of meaningless hypotheses created by micro-abductions in ‘Ba’. The second type is the emergence of organizational culture caused by accumulated strategic behaviors. This mechanism is shown to be the chaotic transition from old organizational culture to new one. This chaotic transition is due to ‘transfer-crisis’ of chaotic state through the instability of strategic behaviors via enforced learning of the schema of old experienced strategic behaviors. The differences and relations of these two types of the emergence mechanisms are discussed. And the implications and applications of this idea are also discussed.


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