{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390001206458451968.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.2467/mripapers.56.9"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"NAID","@value":"130004484911"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"NAID","@value":"30020267284"}}],"dc:title":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Climate Changes of the Twentieth through Twenty-first Centuries Simulated by the MRI-CGCM2.3"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"MRI-CGCM2.3でシミュレートされた２０世紀から２１世紀の気候変動"}],"dc:language":"en","description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Experiments related to twentieth century historical climate changes and the twenty-first century scenario are performed with the latest version of the MRI climate model, MRI-CGCM2.3. The model reproduces globally averaged surface air temperature (SAT) variations in the twentieth century with satisfactory agreement with interdecadal changes of the observed trend, as well as with the overall SAT increase of 0.5°C at the present-day compared to the pre-industrial level. The globally averaged SAT rises 2.4°C in the late twenty-first century in the experiment for scenario A1B of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The spatial structures of the simulated trends for the late twentieth century are validated in various atmospheric fields through comparisons with observed data, which indicate that the model demonstrates reasonable agreement with the observed trend in each field. Most of the simulated changes for the twenty-first century reveal spatial patterns similar to those in the trends that appeared in the late twentieth century. The simulated trend patterns of the sea-level pressure (SLP) in both hemispheres bear a resemblance to the observed trends, with each spatial structure reminiscent of the annular modes in the northern and southern hemispheres (NAM and SAM). These SLP trend patterns are consistent with the trends in the SAT, precipitation, and zonal mean zonal wind fields, as in the NAM and SAM. The coherent trend structures of these fields are projected to be enhanced in twenty-first century climate changes. Changes of ocean and sea-ice in association with these atmospheric changes are also described."},{"@value":"気象研究所気候モデルの最新版(MRI-CGCM2.3)を用いて、20世紀の歴史的な気候変動と21世紀シナリオに関する実験を行った。全球平均地上気温について、モデルは産業革命以前のレベルと比較して現在気候において0.5℃の上昇を再現し、また20世紀に観測された気温トレンドの数十年規模の変化についても満足できる一致を示した。気候変動に関する政府間パネル(IPCC)によるSRESシナリオA1Bに対する実験において、全球平均地上気温は21世紀後半に2.4°C上昇する。再現された20世紀後半におけるトレンドの空間的な構造を様々な大気場に対して観測データと比較検証した。モデルは各大気場において観測されたトレンドと合理的な一致を示した。シミュレートされた21世紀の変化の大部分は、その空間的なパターンが20世紀後半に現れたトレンドのパターンと似ていることがわかった。北半球および南半球における海面気圧(SLP)のシミュレートされたトレンドのパターンは観測されたトレンドに似ており、それぞれ北半球環状モード(NAM)と南半球環状モード(SAM)を思わせる空間的な構造である。これらSLPのトレンドパターンは、NAMとSAMに対すると同様に、地上気温、降水量、および帯状平均東西風におけるトレンドと矛盾しない。21世紀の気候変動では、これらの首尾一貫したトレンド構造が強められていくと予測される。また、これら大気の変化と関連した海洋と海氷の変化についても記述する。"}],"abstractLicenseFlag":"disallow"}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1420564276168322304","@type":"Researcher","personIdentifier":[{"@type":"KAKEN_RESEARCHERS","@value":"90354464"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"1000090354464"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000003132657"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363481783"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363403832"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363481337"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363407281"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363502023"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363407869"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363408290"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363406819"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363407284"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000253480820"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000392818665"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000010176959"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363410867"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363481335"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000257767730"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000257827404"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363503724"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000399842114"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363406413"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000392819430"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000283236647"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000257768279"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000257767375"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000257827225"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363405902"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363407245"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000257979015"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000257978971"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000010393812"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363408291"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000412213137"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000404344570"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000257768332"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000257767322"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363405414"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000283228486"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363409083"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000257767360"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000018916411"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363480911"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363480082"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363480262"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363405416"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363405531"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363480912"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363407181"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363405937"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363480801"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000257767246"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000010688870"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363481763"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363480261"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000382098221"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000283228469"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363404283"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363403620"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363404771"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363500514"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363403459"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363498826"},{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000363490361"},{"@type":"RESEARCHMAP","@value":"https://researchmap.jp/SeijiYukimoto"}],"foaf:name":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Yukimoto 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