A DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING ALGORITHM FOR OPTIMIZING BASEBALL STRATEGIES

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Abstract

<p>In this paper, baseball is formulated as a finite non-zero-sum Markov game with approximately 6.45 million states. We give an effective dynamic programming algorithm which computes equilibrium strategies and the equilibrium winning percentages for both teams in less than 2 second per game. Optimal decision making can be found depending on the situation—for example, for the batting team, whether batting for a hit, stealing a base or sacrifice bunting will maximize their win percentage, or for the fielding team, whether to pitch to or intentionally walk a batter, yields optimal results. Based on this model, we discuss whether the last-batting team has an advantage. In addition, we compute the optimal batting order, in consideration of the decision making in a game.</p>

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