{"@context":{"@vocab":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/schema/1.0/","rdfs":"http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#","dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","prism":"http://prismstandard.org/namespaces/basic/2.0/","cinii":"http://ci.nii.ac.jp/ns/1.0/","datacite":"https://schema.datacite.org/meta/kernel-4/","ndl":"http://ndl.go.jp/dcndl/terms/","jpcoar":"https://github.com/JPCOAR/schema/blob/master/2.0/"},"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390282681479951104.json","@type":"Article","productIdentifier":[{"identifier":{"@type":"DOI","@value":"10.2151/jmsj1965.60.1_292"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"URI","@value":"https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj1965/60/1/60_1_292/_pdf"}},{"identifier":{"@type":"NAID","@value":"130007343218"}}],"dc:title":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"力学方式による長期予報についてのエッセイ"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Essay on Dynamical Long-Range Forecasts of Atmospheric Circulation"}],"description":[{"type":"abstract","notation":[{"@language":"en","@value":"The feasibility of monthly and seasonal forecasts is considered. The gross features of departures of meteorological variables from climatology (anomalies) are the targets of forecasts, and the anomalies can be divided into two modes, i.e., free modes and forced modes. The free modes are the anomalies that are predicted under the specification of climatological external forcings for the surface temperature, that are free from the anomalous forcings, whereas the forced modes are the anomalies that correspond to the anomalous components of external forcings. The GCM (general circulation model) is, in some cases, capable of predicting the free mode at least one month ahead (particularly the most extraordinary blocking event in January, 1977), and is, in other cases, marginal. However, the capability could be increased further by improving the GCM. In addition, recent studies have revealed that there are growing evidences for the feasibility of prediction of forced modes over the United States through the teleconnection process from the sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial Pacific.<br>Yet the GCM approach is expensive and may be limited in improving mathematical accuracy, to a satisfactory extent. As a remedy, the possibility of anomaly models are being investigated."},{"@language":"ja","@value":"このエヅセイは一ケ月予報および季節予報の可能性を論じたものである。予報の対象は,グ.ロス•ベッター量の気候値からのずれ,すなわちアノマリで,アノマリは自由モードと強制モードとに大別される。ここで自由モードというのは,海洋表面の温度条件として,気候値を与え(アノマリではなく),モデルから求められる解で,それに対し,強制モードとは,アノマリ水温の境界条件の下に得られる強制解のことである。<br>現在のところ,GCM(大気循環モデル)は,場合によって,少くとも一ケ月先まで,自由モード解をかなり正確に求めることができる(特に,1977年1月のもっとも異常なブロッキングの場合)。しかし,時によって,その予報は余り正確ではない。<br>われわれの研究の結果によれば,GCMはまだ改善できる余地がある。その上,強制モード解に関し,非常に希望的な資料がある。太平洋の赤道近辺における水温のアノマリから,遠隔伝達のプロセスを通して,アメリカ上空の気温(強制モード)を予測できる可能性があり,それを示唆する事実が着々と蓄積されつつある。<br>とは云うものの,GCM方式による長期予報は,大変,高価につく。将来,その精度が向上できるとしても,それにも限界があるかも知れない。もし,そうだとすれば,その代りとして,アノマリ•モデルが難点を解決する可能性がある。"}],"abstractLicenseFlag":"disallow"}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1410282681479951105","@type":"Researcher","personIdentifier":[{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000392812903"}],"foaf:name":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"都田 菊郎"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Miyakoda K."}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Princeton University"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Princeton University"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1410282681479951104","@type":"Researcher","personIdentifier":[{"@type":"NRID","@value":"9000392812904"}],"foaf:name":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"巣 紀平"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Chao Jin-Ping"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@language":"en","@value":"GFDL, Princeton University"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"GFDL, Princeton University"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"00261165"},{"@type":"LISSN","@value":"00261165"},{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"21869057"},{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"http://id.crossref.org/issn/00261165"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"気象集誌. 第2輯"},{"@value":"気象集誌. 第2輯"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"気象集誌"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"氣象集誌. 第2輯"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan"},{"@language":"en","@value":"JMSJ"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Meteorological Society of Japan"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"公益社団法人 日本気象学会"}],"prism:publicationDate":"1982","prism:volume":"60","prism:number":"1","prism:startingPage":"292","prism:endingPage":"308"},"reviewed":"false","url":[{"@id":"https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj1965/60/1/60_1_292/_pdf"}],"availableAt":"1982","relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360011142941344640","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"The Steady Linear Response of a Spherical Atmosphere to Thermal and Orographic Forcing"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360011144690174208","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Seasonal Differences in the Stationary Response of a Linearized Primitive Equation Model: Prospects for Long-Range Weather Forecasting?"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360011145660875520","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Large–Circulation Anomalies Over the Tropics during 1971–72"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360011145990024832","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Space-Time Spectral Analysis of Mid-Latitude Disturbances Appearing in a GFDL General Circulation Model"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360011146640971264","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"An Initial State Perturbation Experiment with the GISS Model"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360292618880133504","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Surface Boundary Effects on the General Circulation and Macroclimate: A Review of the Theory of the Quasi-Stationary Perturbations in the Atmosphere"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360292618895196928","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Estimating the Variance of Time Averages"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360292620141952896","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Mechanisms Determining the Atmospheric Response to Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360292620751586176","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"problems and promises of deterministic extended range forecasting1"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360298343113638784","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Formulation of the theory of perturbations for complicated models. 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