施策検討を可能とする首都直下地震を想定した災害医療シミュレーション・システムの開発

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  • 布施 理美
    国立研究開発法人防災科学技術研究所災害過程研究部門主幹研究 日本医科大学救急医学
  • 鈴木 進吾
    国立研究開発法人防災科学技術研究所災害過程研究部門主幹研究
  • 布施 明
    日本医科大学救急医学
  • 林 春男
    国立研究開発法人防災科学技術研究所

書誌事項

タイトル別名
  • Development of A Novel Disaster Medical Simulation System for Validating the Flow of Medical Support Activities Following A Major Tokyo Inland Earthquake
  • シサク ケントウ オ カノウ ト スル シュト チョッカ ジシン オ ソウテイ シタ サイガイ イリョウ シミュレーション ・ システム ノ カイハツ

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<p>In the event of a major earthquake in the Tokyo metropolitan area, the number of people injured is predicted to be nearly 150,000 in Tokyo alone. Therefore, the Japanese government must be prepared to respond promptly by deploying medical teams and implementing appropriate medical systems in disaster-stricken areas with the support of base hospitals. Large-scale training of medical professionals is also required annually. Furthermore, all of these measures need to be validated. However, to date, no method has been established to validate measures for medical support activities after a disaster. In this study, we constructed a disaster medical simulation system using discrete-event simulation, reproduced the flow of medical support activities after a disaster, and quantified expected outcomes. The medical activity simulation was conducted in response to a hypothetical major earthquake in Tokyo. Results were assessed according to location by dividing Tokyo into the 12 districts specified as secondary medical districts by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government. The simulation time frame started from when an injury was first sustained due to the earthquake and concluded when all victims reached one of the following endpoints: admission to hospital, transport out of a staging care unit, or death. In this scenario, more than 3,000 yellow or red tag patients would be admitted to hospitals located in the Central Northeast and Central East districts of Tokyo, which is a very serious medical situation. In terms of load per hospital, affiliated hospitals in the Central East district can accept the largest number of yellow and red tag patients (more than 250) at one time, followed by affiliated hospitals in the Central South district, and disaster base hospitals and affiliated hospitals in the Central Northeast district. Under current assumptions for medical assistance, the disaster medical simulation system found that due to a lack of medical staff only 67.1% of yellow or red tag patients would survive a disaster through treatment, hospitalization, and wide-area medical transportation. In the future, it is hoped that this simulation system will be used to investigate and resolve bottlenecks for disaster medical care and to implement appropriate response measures.</p>

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