Atmospheric simulation models play a significant role in supporting the decision by the local government to issue photochemical-oxidant warnings. We evaluated the performance of an air pollution forecast system, VENUS, for simulating atmospheric ozone in the summer of 2024. Simulated ozone concentrations using meteorological forecast data were generally comparable in accuracy to those using meteorological analysis data. The VENUS also predicted the occurrence of high ozone events, with daily maximum ozone concentrations (DM1h-O3) over 100 ppbv in individual regions, achieving a true alert ratio of 70% and a detection probability of 55%. In addition, by implementing a bias correction using quantile mapping, the VENUS predicted the occurrence of high ozone events with DM1h-O3 over 120 ppbv, with a true alert ratio and a detection probability of 45%–50%.
"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"2025年1月に気象庁のスモッグ気象情報等の配信が終了したため、自治体による光化学オキシダント注意報の発令判断に資する情報が求められている。本研究では、国立環境研究所で運用している大気汚染予測システム（VENUS）を発令判断に活用するための情報提供を目的に、光化学オキシダント注意報の発令が多発した2024年夏季におけるVENUSの予測精度を評価した。VENUSは各地方における100 ppbv以上の高濃度O3発生頻度を70%の適中率と55%の捕捉率で前日に予測可能であり、ガイダンスを併用することで120 ppbv以上の高濃度O3発生頻度を45–50%の適中率と捕捉率で予測可能であった。
"}],"abstractLicenseFlag":"disallow"}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1410305278750824962","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"茶谷 聡"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Chatani Satoru"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@language":"en","@value":"National Institute for Environmental Studies"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"国立環境研究所"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1410305278750824965","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"弓本 桂也"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Yumimoto Keiya"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"九州大学応用力学研究所"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1410305278750824966","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"菅田 誠治"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Sugata Seiji"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@language":"en","@value":"National Institute for Environmental Studies"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"国立環境研究所"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1410305278750824960","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"森野 悠"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Morino Yu"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@language":"en","@value":"National Institute for Environmental Studies"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"国立環境研究所"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1410305278750824963","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"兼松 透江"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Kanematsu Yukie"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@language":"en","@value":"National Institute for Environmental Studies"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"国立環境研究所"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1410305278750824961","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"板橋 秀一"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Itahashi Syuichi"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"九州大学応用力学研究所"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1410305278750824964","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"五藤 大輔"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Goto Daisuke"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@language":"en","@value":"National Institute for Environmental Studies"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"国立環境研究所"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"13414178"},{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"21854335"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"大気環境学会誌"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Journal of Japan Society for Atmospheric Environment / Taiki Kankyo Gakkaishi"},{"@language":"en","@value":"JJSAE"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Atmospheric Environment"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Taiki Kankyo"},{"@language":"en","@value":"J.Jpn.Soc.Atmos.Environ."},{"@language":"ja","@value":"大気環境"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"大気環境学会誌"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Journal of Japan Society for Atmospheric Environment / Taiki Kankyo Gakkaishi"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Japan Society for Atmospheric Environment"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"公益社団法人 大気環境学会"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2025-08-22","prism:volume":"60","prism:number":"5","prism:startingPage":"115","prism:endingPage":"120"},"availableAt":"2025-08-22","foaf:topic":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=numerical%20prediction","dc:title":"numerical prediction"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=photochemical%20oxidants","dc:title":"photochemical oxidants"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=atmospheric%20ozone","dc:title":"atmospheric ozone"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=VENUS","dc:title":"VENUS"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=quantile%20mapping","dc:title":"quantile mapping"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=numerical%20prediction","dc:title":"numerical prediction"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=photochemical%20oxidants","dc:title":"photochemical oxidants"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=atmospheric%20ozone","dc:title":"atmospheric ozone"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=VENUS","dc:title":"VENUS"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=quantile%20mapping","dc:title":"quantile mapping"}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"JALC","@value":"oai:japanlinkcenter.org:2014525485"}]}