10.2208/journalofjsce.8.1_241
https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/journalofjsce/8/1/8_241/_pdf
130007928355
RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF AN EXISTING STEEL PLATE GIRDER BRIDGE USING POSTERIOR DISTRIBUTIONS OF MODEL PARAMETERS
en
abstract
<p> This study shows the applicability of using the posterior distributions of model parameters on the structural reliability analysis of existing bridges. The target here was a steel plate-girder bridge that showed corrosions and deterioration in its girders, bearings, and concrete slab. The mean and variance of resonant frequencies were acquired through multiple measurements of traffic vibration for use as observation data in the Bayesian inference. A nominal finite element (FE) model of the target bridge was then constructed. The prior distributions of model parameters that represented the uncertainties due to the deteriorations were then determined based on the inspection data, and the parameters that had sensitivities to resonant frequencies were extracted by the analysis of variance (ANOVA) to prevent ill-posedness. The posterior distributions of the spring stiffness at the ends of steel girders, which were given to represent performances of the corroded bearings in the FE model and the density of the concrete slab, were estimated by applying surrogate modeling and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). It was then recognized that the uncertainties of those model parameters could be reduced, and those posterior distributions could explain the actual deteriorations. The posterior distributions were used to calculate the structural reliability index <i>β</i> of the target bridge. The probability density functions of maximum Mises-stress on the steel girders under the design load were first obtained by the Monte Carlo FE model calculations using the prior and posterior distributions, respectively. In the results, the reliability index against the variability of steel yield stress in the case of posterior distributions became higher than that in the case of the prior. It was then concluded that the procedure presented in this study could provide an understanding of the structural reliability of existing bridges quantitatively.</p>
disallow
9000410504377
KURODA Risa
Department of Civil Engineering, Yokohama National University
9000410504378
NISHIO Mayuko
Department of Civil Engineering, Yokohama National University
Department of Engineering Mechanics and Energy, University of Tsukuba
21875103
21875103
Journal of JSCE
Journal of JSCE
Journal of JSCE
Journal of JSCE
Japan Society of Civil Engineers
公益社団法人 土木学会
2020
8
1
241
254
false
references
Computer Model Calibration Using High-Dimensional Output
references
Structural Reliability Theory and Its Applications
references
Reliability of corroded steel girder bridges
references
Automated finite element updating using strain data for the lifetime reliability assessment of bridges
references
The Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test for Goodness of Fit
references
橋梁支承の腐食劣化過程を対象としたモデルパラメータ事後分布逐次推定に関する基礎研究
SEQUENTIAL ESTIMATION OF POSTERIOR DISTRIBUTIONS OF MODEL PARAMETERS OF BRIDGE BEARNG UNDER CORROSION PROCESS
references
A STATISTICAL SURVEY ON THICKNESS AND MECHNICAL PROPERTIES OF STRUCTURAL STEEL PLATES FOR BRIDGES
橋梁向け構造用鋼板の板厚および強度に関する統計調査
references
Bayesian Inference Based Uncertainty Quantification and Calibration of Numerical Models of Existing Structures
ベイズ推定による既存構造物数値モデルの不確定性定量化とキャリブレーション
oai:japanlinkcenter.org:2008100747
10.2208/journalofjsce.8.1_241
130007928355