To improve the accuracy of storm surge forecasting, it is desirable to improve the typhoon forecasting accuracy. The typhoon forecasting model WRF has a high degree of freedom in setting its calculation conditions. In this study, we conducted sensitivity analyses of the WRF’s calculation domain settings, initial and boundary conditions, and physics options, which have a large impact on typhoon forecasting due to the differences in their settings among model users. Here we show that (1) horizontal resolution has a greater impact on typhoon forecasting than location of calculation domain, (2) the choice of analysis data used for initial conditions of WRF has a greater impact on typhoon forecasting than lateral boundary conditions, and (3) the relationship between forecast start time and variability of storm surge forecasting due to differences in the setting of physics options of WRF. These results are useful for evaluating the uncertainty in typhoon and storm surge forecasts caused by differences in the WRF’s calculation conditions. In the future, introducing more sophisticated data assimilation (e.g., 4DVAR, EnKF) in typhoon forecasting seems necessary to improve the typhoon and storm surge forecasting accuracy.
"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"高潮予測精度向上のために，台風予測精度向上が望まれる．台風予測に用いられる気象モデルWRFは，計算条件設定の選択肢の幅が広い．本研究では，利用者によって設定の差が出やすく台風予測への影響が大きいWRFの計算領域設定，初期値・境界値，物理オプションに対する感度解析を行った．結果，(1)領域位置よりも水平解像度が台風予測にもたらす影響が大きいこと(2)側方境界値よりも初期値に用いる解析値の選択の方が台風予測への影響が大きいこと，そして(3)物理オプションの選定の違いによる高潮予測のばらつきと予測開始時間の関係を示した．高潮予測については，最大潮位偏差の過小評価と高潮のピーク発生時間の遅れが課題である．これらの改善のために今後，観測値を用いたデータ同化を導入し，台風経路・速度と強度予測精度向上を図る必要がある．
"}],"abstractLicenseFlag":"disallow"}],"creator":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1410575418100011137","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@language":"en","@value":"SHIRAI Tomoki"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"白井 知輝"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"中央大学大学院 理工学研究科都市人間環境学専攻"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1410575418100011136","@type":"Researcher","foaf:name":[{"@language":"en","@value":"ARIKAWA Taro"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"有川 太郎"}],"jpcoar:affiliationName":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"中央大学 理工学部都市環境学科"}]}],"publication":{"publicationIdentifier":[{"@type":"EISSN","@value":"18838944"},{"@type":"PISSN","@value":"18842399"}],"prism:publicationName":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"土木学会論文集Ｂ２（海岸工学）"},{"@value":"土木学会論文集B2(海岸工学)"},{"@language":"en","@value":"Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"海岸工学論文集"}],"dc:publisher":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Japan Society of Civil Engineers"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"公益社団法人 土木学会"}],"prism:publicationDate":"2022","prism:volume":"78","prism:number":"2","prism:startingPage":"I_199","prism:endingPage":"I_204"},"reviewed":"false","url":[{"@id":"https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/kaigan/78/2/78_I_199/_pdf"}],"availableAt":"2022","foaf:topic":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=typhoon","dc:title":"typhoon"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=storm%20surge","dc:title":"storm surge"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=forecasting","dc:title":"forecasting"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=WRF%20configuration","dc:title":"WRF configuration"},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/all?q=sensitivity%20analysis","dc:title":"sensitivity analysis"}],"relatedProduct":[{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360298341490908544","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Sensitivity of WRF simulated typhoon track and intensity over the South China Sea to horizontal and vertical resolutions"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360579817090471424","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"How do uncertainties in hurricane model forecasts affect storm surge predictions in a semi-enclosed bay?"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360579820066445184","@type":"Article","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@value":"Application of the WRF model to the coastal area at Ise Bay, Japan: evaluation of model output sensitivity to input data"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390001205319061248","@type":"Article","resourceType":"学術雑誌論文(journal article)","relationType":["references"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"en","@value":"Effects of WRF parameterization on meteorological predictions in the mid-latitude region - planetary boundary layer scheme and cloud microphysics -"},{"@language":"ja","@value":"中緯度の気象解析に対するWRFのパフォーマンス解析 ―惑星境界層スキームと雲物理モデルの影響―"},{"@language":"ja-Kana","@value":"チュウ イド ノ キショウ カイセキ ニ タイスル WRF ノ パフォーマンス カイセキ : ワクセイ キョウカイソウ スキーム ト クモブツリ モデル ノ エイキョウ"}]},{"@id":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390869003305471488","@type":"Article","relationType":["isReferencedBy"],"jpcoar:relatedTitle":[{"@language":"ja","@value":"異常検知モデルを用いた将来気候特有の事象抽出手法―高潮偏差分布への適用―"},{"@language":"en","@value":"METHOD FOR EXTRACTING FUTURE CLIMATE-SPECIFIC EVENTS USING AN ANOMALY DETECTION MODEL: APPLICATION TO STORM SURGE DEVIATION DISTRIBUTION"}]}],"dataSourceIdentifier":[{"@type":"JALC","@value":"oai:japanlinkcenter.org:2009951227"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.2208/kaigan.78.2_i_199"},{"@type":"CROSSREF","@value":"10.2208/jscejj.25-18158_references_DOI_QAZQcw5iWO0iJumMTCrWrSuUbns"}]}