Heatstroke Risk Projection in Japan under Current and Near Future Climates

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  • NAKAMURA Shingo
    Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
  • SATO Ryogo
    Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
  • KUSAKA Hiroyuki
    Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
  • SATO Takuto
    Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan

Bibliographic Information

Other Title
  • 現在および近未来気候下における日本の熱中症リスク予測
Published
2022
Resource Type
journal article
DOI
  • 10.2151/jmsj.2022-030
Publisher
Meteorological Society of Japan

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Description

<p>This study assesses heatstroke risk in the near future (2031–2050) under RCP8.5 scenario. The developed model is based on a generalized linear model with the number of ambulance transport due to heatstroke (hereafter the patients with heatstroke) as the explained variable and the daily maximum temperature or wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) as the explanatory variable. With the model based on the daily maximum temperature, we performed the projection of the patients with heatstroke in case of considering only climate change (Case 1); climate change and population dynamics (Case 2); and climate change, population dynamics, and long-term heat acclimatization (Case 3). In Case 2, the number of patients with heatstroke in the near future will be 2.3 times higher than that in the baseline period (1981–2000) on average nationwide. The number of future patients with heatstroke in Case 2 is about 10 % larger than that in Case 1 on average nationwide despite population decline. This is due to the increase in the number of elderly people from the baseline period to the near future. However, in 20 prefectures, the number of patients in Case 2 is smaller compared to Case 1. Comparing the results from Cases 1 and 3 reveals that the number of patients with heatstroke could be reduced by about 60 % nationwide by acquiring heat tolerance and changing lifestyles. Notably, given the lifestyle changes represented by the widespread use of air conditioners, the number of patients with heatstroke in the near future will be lower than that of the baseline period in some areas. In other words, lifestyle changes can be an important adaptation to the risk of heatstroke emergency. All of the above results were also confirmed in the prediction model with WBGT as the explanatory variable.</p>

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