Monetary Policy under the Zero Lower Bound Interest : Japan's Experience
This paper quantifies the effect of non-traditional monetary easing at the zero lower bound on interest rate, so called “quantitative easing monetary policy” which the BOJ adopted from March 2001 through June 2006, by changing operating target for money market from the uncollateralized call rate to the outstanding current account balances held by financial institutes at the BOJ. The paper confirms that the monetary policy has contributed to the recovery of the prolonged deflation.First we estimate a minimal VAR model, which consists of the current account balances at the BOJ (CABs) as a policy variable, real GDP, and inflation rate. Next we decompose money stock into transaction money and precautionary money to evaluate the transmission mechanism of the effect of CABs on the real economy by taking into account the financial anxiety. We have found a quantitative easing shock firstly increases transaction money and then raises output and price, which dispels the anxiety. We also confirm that a liquidity trap did not exist during the period of quantitative easing monetary policy.