Development of Machine Learning Prediction Models for Self-Extubation After Delirium Using Emergency Department Data

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<jats:p>Delirium is common in the emergency department, and once it develops, there is a risk of self-extubation of drains and tubes, so it is critical to predict delirium before it occurs. Machine learning was used to create two prediction models in this study: one for predicting the occurrence of delirium and one for predicting self-extubation after delirium. Each model showed high discriminative performance, indicating the possibility of selecting high-risk cases. Visualization of predictors using Shapley additive explanation (SHAP), a machine learning interpretability method, showed that the predictors of delirium were different from those of self-extubation after delirium. Data-driven decisions, rather than empirical decisions, on whether or not to use physical restraints or other actions that cause patient suffering will result in improved value in medical care.</jats:p>

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