Potential contribution of interbasin interaction to the western Pacific climate variability and tropical cyclone activity on subdecadal to decadal timescales
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- Mochizuki Takashi
- Principal Investigator
- 九州大学
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- 森 正人
- Co-Investigator
- 九州大学
About this project
- Japan Grant Number
- JP17K05661
- Funding Program
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
- Funding organization
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
- Project/Area Number
- 17K05661
- Research Category
- Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
- Allocation Type
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- Multi-year Fund
- Review Section / Research Field
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- Science and Engineering > Mathematics and Physics > Earth and planetary science > Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
- Research Institution
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- Kyushu University
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
- Project Period (FY)
- 2017-04-01 〜 2023-03-31
- Project Status
- Completed
- Budget Amount*help
- 4,290,000 Yen (Direct Cost: 3,300,000 Yen Indirect Cost: 990,000 Yen)
Research Abstract
We tried to enhance our knowledge of decadal variations in the western Pacific climate and tropical cyclone activity, focusing on interbasin interactions in the climate system. We have found a subdecadal variation that has been distinctively observed in the 2000s over the tropical Pacific, possibly related to the potential chance of heavy rainfall near Japan. By performing partial data assimilation of a global climate model, we have demonstrated that ocean temperature anomalies in the tropical and north Atlantic Oceans contribute to the distinctive fluctuations observed in the 2000s as above, while the direct contribution to modulation of the tropical cyclone activity is not significantly detected. In our decadal hindcasts with initialization, the climate model predominantly simulates a different type of fluctuations in any decade, and the resultant low predictability of the subdecadal variation in the 2000s can work to modulate the predictive skills at a lead time of several years.