Future Projection of Regional Flood Risk by Using Probabilistic Flood Envelope Curves

About This Project

Japan Grant Number
JP26450344 (JGN)
Funding Program
Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
Funding Organization
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

Kakenhi Information

Project/Area Number
26450344
Research Category
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Allocation Type
  • Multi-year Fund
Review Section / Research Field
  • Biological Sciences > Agriculture > Agro-engineering > Rural environmental engineering/Planning
Research Institution
  • Okayama University
Project Period (FY)
2014-04-01 〜 2017-03-31
Project Status
Completed
Budget Amount*help
3,250,000 Yen (Direct Cost: 2,500,000 Yen Indirect Cost: 750,000 Yen)

Research Abstract

An implicit flood envelope curve (FEC) equation was derived as a solution to a system of a 6-parameter depth-area-duration (DAD) equation, a time of concentration formula and the rational formula. The FEC equation was respectively applied to present and future probabilistic specific discharge in six river basins in Japan. The comparison of present and future FECs shows different characteristics of change in probabilistic flood discharge especially by basin area. In addition, flood envelope curves were derived from DAD relations in record maximum areal rainfall data for each of 15 regions in Japan, and the estimated peak specific discharge from the DAD relation exceeded the estimated by conventional flood envelope curves as Creager’s and Kadoya’s in some of the regions including the South Hokkaido area.

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