TEMPORAL VARIATIONS OF PREDICTABILITY IN A SIMPLIFIED ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION MODEL

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  • 簡略化した大気循環モデルにおける予測可能性の時間変動
  • カンリャクカシタ タイキ ジュンカン モデル ニ オケル ヨソク カノウセイ

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Abstract

Relations between temporal variations in the atmospheric predictability and quasi-stationary (QS) states, such as weather regimes, is investigated both with low- dimensional dynamical systems and with a simplified atmospheric circulation model introduced by Legras and Ghil (1985).As a measure of the predictability, we use the Lorenz index a, introduced by Lorenz (1965), which gives an ensemble average of the perturbation growth rate for a prescribed time interval. As to QS states, we apply the concept established by Mukougawa (1988).In the one-dimensional dynamical system there is the obvious relation that a increases monotonically during the QS state.However, in the multi-dimensional dynamical system there is no obvious relation between α and the QS state. Considering the trajectory only on the attractor, each QS state has its own relationship. In some chaotic solutions of the Legras and Ghil model there is the same relation as in the one-dimensional dynamical system.

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