Analysis and prediction of anomalous weather and atmospheric hazards

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  • 異常気象とそれに伴う災害の実態把握と予測に関する研究

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Abstract

This paper describes the analysis of various phenomena related with anomalous weatherand its hazards, which consists of three parts. The first part describes predictability of the influenceof stratospheric motions on the tropospheric circulation change just after the stratospheric suddenwarming (SSW) event occurring in December 1998 using 1-month ensemble forecasts performedby Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). In the second part, temporal changes in vegetationphenologies was investigate by remotely sensed Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)data for the background of anomalous weather. An intensive numerical study was also conducted inthe second part and the transformation processes are analyzed based on the simulated results. Thelast part shows the field investigation on the severe damages of structures induced by the typhoon0314(Maemi) which attacked Miyako Island on 11th September 2003.

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