福島第一原発由来放射線による長期的発ガン率と関東圏における5例の内部被曝預託実効線量の推定

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  • フクシマ ダイイチ ゲンパツ ユライ ホウシャセン ニ ヨル チョウキテキ ハツガンリツ ト カントウケン ニ オケル 5レイ ノ ナイブ ヒバクヨタク ジッコウセンリョウ ノ スイテイ
  • An Estimation of The Long-Term Rate of Cancer Occurrence and The Committed Dose Of 5 Cases In the Kanto Area Due to the Nuclear Contamination by the Fukushima Daiich Nuclear Reactors Accident

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We estimated long-term rate of occurrence of cancer in Fukushima and Kanto area due to nuclear contamination from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Reactors based on the empirical law given by Dr.Tondel, who had found from his investigation on the north part of Sweden that the rate of cancer occurrence increased by 11% per 100kBq/m2 nuclear contamination of the ground. Our estimation shows that in the most contaminated Fukushima area the rate will increase by 400-500%, and in Kanto area it will increase by about 10% in average. It means that a ten thousand cancer patients will be produced due to the Nuclear Reactors accident in near future. Further, we estimated the Committed Dose of five Kanto area residents by WBC(Whole Body Counter) and using MONDAL3 , a software to estimate Committed Dose, offered by National Institute of Radiological Science. The result shows that the Committed Doses are order of 10E-5 to 10E-6 Sv. Thus, we could support the idea that level of internal exposure in Kanto area is relatively low and no damageable to our body. But it should be noted that the conclusion can be said within the limit of the range of WBC measurement sensitivity. Thus, it should not be considered that the result has relieved us from the risk of internal exposure perfectly and the situation is safe, because, for example, so-called “hot particles", which are still emitting highly dangerous α-particles even in a very small amount, are still observed in the atmosphere.

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