ハンフリーズのパラドクスを巡って : 客観的な単一試行確率における時間の向きについて

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  • ハンフリーズ ノ パラドクス オ メグッテ : キャッカンテキ ナ タンイツ シコウ カクリツ ニ オケル ジカン ノ ムキ ニ ツイテ
  • Hanfurizu no paradokusu o megutte : kyakkanteki na tanitsu shiko kakuritsu ni okeru jikan no muki ni tsuite
  • "Humphreys' ｐaradox" on direction of time in objective single-case probability

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A number of responses to Humphreys' Paradox are discussed inthis paper. Humphreys' Paradox states that the standard probabilitytheory cannot represent the nature of propensity interpretation ofprobability because of the time-asymmetric feature of the concept ofpropensity. The paradox is usually taken to be a significant fault ofthe propensity interpretation. The discussions related to the paradoxare complicated, and several versions of the propensity interpretationand paradox exist. Every version of the propensity interpretationleads us to some version of the paradox. Therefore, the paradoxstill remains. The author also suggests an answer to the paradox.The concept of propensity is closely related to a philosophical viewof the concept of time, that is, the objective interpretation of time.On the other hand, the block universe view of time leads us to anew objective single-case interpretation of probability, where difficultiesthat are similar to Humphreys' Paradox do not arise.

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  • 哲學

    哲學 131 1-25, 2013-03

    三田哲學會

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