自由変動為替相場制への移行のエジプト財政への影響

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  • The Impact of Floating Exchange Rate Regime on the Egyptian Public Finance

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説明

This paper studied the impact of shifting to the floating exchange regime on public finance in Egypt with attention to debt. The paper found that fiscal position measured by structural balance to GDP was rising during the period after transition to floating exchange rate system despite rising interest rates, rapidly tightening monetary policy against capital outflows and souring inflation. Then, the paper looked at the impact of regime change on structural balance to GDP. The regression derived from debt dynamics equation shows a positive and statistically significant relation by public debt on structural balance confirming the causality from debt to structural balance. In the second half of this paper, the stability of debt is analyzed. The analysis provides that the sensitivity of primary balance on debt is very large, compared with rate of inflation, nominal interest rates and therefore, debt is stable in Egypt.

収録刊行物

  • 千葉経済論叢

    千葉経済論叢 (61), 147-170, 2019-12-31

    千葉 : 千葉経済大学

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