メッシュデータを用いた人口増減地区の抽出方法

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  • A method for detecting districts with significant population changes

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This paper discusses a method of detecting districts in which the population is increasing or decreasing. Population change ratios are usually used to account for population change. However, when we try to find the districts with population increase or decrease by drawing a choropleth map showing the ratios of population changes, the results are able to vary depending on the reader’s ability of map reading. Furthermore, the resulting districts are able to have the same tendency of population increase/decrease as their neighboring areas, and the increase/decrease should not be considered to be that of the districts locally, but to be that of the neighboring areas entirely. Therefore, we propose a method applying GWR: Geographic Weighted Regression model, which enables us to consider local population changes, to mechanically find the population increase/decrease areas without the need for human map reading. An example of the proposed method is shown, where a set of 1km mesh data of the census 2000, 2010 and 2020 in the case of Gunma prefecture is analyzed. Through the example, it is shown that the proposed method can be practically carried out under the use of GIS application software such as ArcGIS.

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