Role of carbon dioxide capture and storage in energy systems for net-zero emissions in Japan

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Japan's sixth Strategic Energy Plan mentions that carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one of the important options to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050; however, the technology faces significant uncertainties regarding its potential and costs. This study quantifies the impact of CCS uncertainties on Japan's net-zero energy mix using an energy system optimization model. The simulation results show that CO2 storage availability largely affects the optimal energy choice in the entire energy sector, including the electricity and all end-use sectors. Future CCS implementation would determine the penetration of net-zero emission fuels, such as hydrogen and synthetic fuels. The results also imply that CCS is crucial in curbing Japan's emission reduction costs. Marginal CO2 abatement cost in 2050 surges to 1717 USD/tCO2 in a limited CCS case (injecting 10 MtCO2/year in 2050), tripling from that of a higher CCS case (504 USD/tCO2 when injecting 200 MtCO2/year in 2050). An additional analysis of CCS costs confirms that CCS can be economically attractive even in a high CCS cost case. The results of this study can provide scientific insights into the design of country- and corporate-level energy strategies.

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