INVESTIGATION INTO THE UNCERTAINTY OF INITNIAL AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS IN THE HINDCAST OF FLOW FIELDS OVER URBAN AREA USING A MESO-SCALE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL

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  • メソスケール気象モデルを用いた都市上空の流れ場の再現計算における初期値・境界値の不確実性に関する検討
  • Investigation of the uncertainty of initial and boundary conditions in the hindcasts of flow fields over urban areas using a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model

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<p>Many studies have been conducted using meso-scale numerical weather prediction models to analyze the thermal and wind environments of urban areas all over the world. However, weather predictions are highly sensitive to initial conditions. It’s so called the “butterfly effect”. In this study, the effects of the initial and boundary conditions on the accuracy of reproducing the wind environment, especially for the sea breeze, over Fukuoka metropolitan area were investigated by changing the objective analysis data used for the initial and boundary conditions and the length of the spin-up calculation period.</p>

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