An Analysis of the Referendum on the Osaka Metropolis Plan : Why Did Voter Turnout Rise and Why was Opinion Equally Divided?

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  • 大阪都構想をめぐる有権者の関心と賛否の拮抗をもたらした要因─24行政区レベルのデータ等をもとにした基礎的分析─

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Osaka citizens rejected the Osaka metropolis plan in a referendum in 2015. About two thirds of the over 2 million voters turned out and the result was decided by a narrow margin. Various scholars and journalists have tried to explain the result, but none of their explanations, such as the “Silver Democracy” theory or the incompleteness of the plan itself, have been backed by adequate evidence. This paper tries to give a new insight using aggregate data from the administrative wards of Osaka city. I focus on the rise of voter turnout and the equally divided opinion in the referendum, and find that the “Silver Democracy” theory has extremely limited plausibility but that support for mayor Hashimoto has the most support. The referendum in Osaka was little more than a kind of second-order election that measures the support for Hashimoto.

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