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  • 財務諸表と株式評価モデル (徐龍達教授退任記念号)
  • Financial Statements and Stock Evaluation Models
  • ザイム ショヒョウ ト カブシキ ヒョウカ モデル

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Stock price is expected to be the fair indicator in financial market for efficient allocation of capital among firms, reflecting the estimated intrinsic value based on the financial information through the convincing models for stock evaluation. Among such models are discountel dividends model, discounted cash flow model, and discounted excess earnings model. This paper introduces these models and presents rationale of each model at first. Then, it is demonstrated using some simple example that each model leads to the same amount of value as long as the input variables to the models are estimated correctly. Superiority among models, therefore, depends largely on the quality of estimation of input variables needed by each model. Only an estimation of dividends is sufficient for an application of discountrd dividend model. Both discounted cash flow model and discounted excess earnings model can make use of logical relationship between accounting numbers to enhance the quality of the estimated variables. Accounting earnings, as a basis for estimation of future value, is vulnerable because of earnings management in a sense, but is able to reflect future plan and intention of managements and become richer information. Quantitative superiority could be verified based on the empirical evidence which compares the ex post stock price with the ex ante intrinsic value estimated by each model.

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KJ00000154992

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