コンドラチエフ波動と中国経済

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タイトル別名
  • Kondratiev Wave in China
  • コンドラチエフ　ハドウ　ト　チュウゴク　ケイザイ

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抄録

This paper aims to find out The Long Wave, in China. From 19 Century to first half of 20 Century, we could hardly use economic statistics, so that we analogize economic situation from political and social events. Most accurately, Chinese economy was influenced by industrialized countries' economic disasters. The masses riot happened regularly in Deflation periods in industrial countries. After the World War Ⅱ, which corresponds to the rising period of the fourth long wave, China was led by Mao, developed socialistic system which was supported by proletarians. In the peak of the long wave, when Nixon visited to Beijing in 1972, Chinese economy changed the trend to aim market oriented economy, which has built wealth class. In these periods, as government directly controlled the economy, economic figurers did not show the long wave. However, in the rising period, the opinion of the mass is dominant to equalize income structure. In the declining period, the opinion of the elite enlarges income discrepancy. These phenomena are representative in the long wave. Then, the income discrepancy leads social revolution. 19-20 Centuries, Chinese society and economy were influenced by developed countries long wave. But now days, China, as the largest country of BRICs, has started to lead long wave upswing in the world economy. We have to focus on the long wave from China.

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