Verification of Zone-30-policy effect on accident reduction using propensity score matching method for multiple treatments

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Abstract

In this study, the effect of the Zone 30 policy on traffic accident reduction in Hyogo prefecture, Japan, was analyzed. Specifically, with the micro-districts (cho-cho-moku) of Hyogo prefecture as the analysis units, statistical verification was performed for the cross-section data of 2017, i.e., a few years after the introduction of the "30-km/h zones," using the propensity score matching method for multiple treatments. The micro-districts of Hyogo prefecture were classified into three groups: Group 1 with no 30-km/h zones, Group 2 with 30-km/h zones but without physical devices, and Group 3 with 30-km/h zones and physical devices. The primary analysis results were as follows: The number of "Killed" or "Seriously Injured" (KSI) accidents in Group 3 tended to be lower than that in Group 1, whereas there were no significant differences between Groups 1 and 2. Moreover, the total number of traffic accidents in Group 3 was not less than that in Group 1. These results suggest that, at this point, designating an area as a 30-km/h zone, by itself, has negligible effect on reducing traffic accidents; conversely, such areas can effectively reduce the number of KSI accidents when combined with physical devices. In addition, as a verification method, it is empirically demonstrated that utilizing more than two groups is an effective approach for measuring the impact of traffic safety measures.

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