Combining age, sex, body mass index, sport level, and preoperative quadriceps strength improves the predictive ability of quadriceps strength recovery after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction

Purpose: This study compared the predictive ability of each independent predictor with that of a combination of predictors for quadriceps strength recovery one year after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction. Methods: Patients who underwent primary ACL reconstruction using hamstring autografts were enrolled. Quadriceps strength, hamstring strength, and anterior tibial translation were measured, and the limb symmetry index (LSI) of the quadriceps and the hamstrings was calculated preoperatively and one year after surgery. Patients were classified into two groups according to the LSI of the quadriceps strength at one year postoperatively (≥ 80% or < 80%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified the independent predictors of quadriceps strength recovery, and the cut-off value was calculated using the receiver operating characteristic curve. A model assessing predictive ability of the combination of independent predictors was created, and the area under the curve (AUC) for each independent predictor was calculated by using the receiver-operating characteristic curves and the DeLong method. Results: Of the 646 patients, 414 (64.1%) had an LSI of at least 80% for quadriceps strength one year after surgery, and 232 patients (35.9%) had an LSI of < 80%. Age, sex, body mass index (BMI), preinjury sport level, and LSI of preoperative quadriceps strength were independently associated with quadriceps strength recovery one year after ACL reconstruction. The cut-off values were age: 22.5 years; sex: female; BMI: 24.3 kg/m2; preinjury sport level: no sport; and LSI of preoperative quadriceps strength: 63.3%. The AUC of the model assessing the predictive ability of the combination of age, sex, BMI, preinjury sport level, and LSI of preoperative quadriceps strength was significantly higher (0.73) than that of similar factors of preoperative quadriceps strength (AUC: 0.63, 0.53, 0.56, 0.61, and 0.68, p < 0.01, respectively). Conclusion: The combination of age, sex, BMI, preinjury sport level, and LSI of preoperative quadriceps strength had a superior predictive ability for quadriceps strength recovery at one year after ACL reconstruction than these predictors alone. Multiple factors, including patient characteristics and preoperative quadriceps strength, should be considered when planning rehabilitation programs to improve quadriceps strength recovery after ACL reconstruction. Level of evidence: III.